MarketInsider completely unreliable

[Smartik1]

Hell's Kitchen had high demand for electronics, everything above 50%, 2 above 70%, all of them upward trend icon. I set up a shop over a period of 2 days. I haven't even opened yet. I wake up to start my shop, MarketInsider shows upward trend icon across 100% of items across all markets, electronics hit rock bottom (to a point phones are at 29%.

What's up with that? There are 0 articles about anything related to it. I'm the 2nd electronics store there. It's my 6th proper business and was expensive as hell to set up.

[David Estes Creations]

Did you mean MarketInsider (not EconoView)?

[Smartik1]

Yea market insider sorry. The next day the upwards trend markers are only on few products, including all electronics, but all of them are sub 50%. Highest is 44%, rest are 30-33%.

How can you have "upwards trend" while they hit rock bottom?

[Mr. Payne]

I've seen the market flux like this many times, what I end up doing (regardless of competition ) is set up 1 of each store type in each of the 4 boroughs. Even the most basic shop, with great trained customer service and basic needs (music, cleanliness) always makes profit.

For electronics, I actually only use the 15 customer max small shops with great traffic and only have 1 stand of each of the 6 items (so 10 max customer) and they turn a hearty profit, IIRC 10~k a day. They're open from 16 hours a day on weekdays, and 12 hours a day on weekends.

Oddly enough, I never change prices on anything outside of lawyers, and I'm making approx 500-650k a day.

[Smartik1]

Originally posted by Mr. Payne:

I've seen the market flux like this many times, what I end up doing (regardless of competition ) is set up 1 of each store type in each of the 4 boroughs. Even the most basic shop, with great trained customer service and basic needs (music, cleanliness) always makes profit.

For electronics, I actually only use the 15 customer max small shops with great traffic and only have 1 stand of each of the 6 items (so 10 max customer) and they turn a hearty profit, IIRC 10~k a day. They're open from 16 hours a day on weekdays, and 12 hours a day on weekends.

Oddly enough, I never change prices on anything outside of lawyers, and I'm making approx 500-650k a day.

I started like that because for some reason the entire city wanted gift shops. Even now, 75 days later, gift shops are glued to the top of demand across all 4 regions, even though I have 1 open in each area, even though I have competition. I don't quite get it.

[David Estes Creations]

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Yea market insider sorry. The next day the upwards trend markers are only on few products, including all electronics, but all of them are sub 50%. Highest is 44%, rest are 30-33%.

How can you have "upwards trend" while they hit rock bottom?

That's not "rock bottom", though. The demand on MarketInsider is a reflection of how many competitors are selling products. Previously, there was only 1 person selling it, which is why it dropped from 100% (with 0 people selling it) to about 70%, nearly a 30% drop. Once you opened your store, now there are 2 people selling those items, so the demand drops another nearly 30% and you see numbers under 50%.

You'll still do very well with sales at those numbers!

[Smartik1]

Originally posted by David Estes Creations:

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Yea market insider sorry. The next day the upwards trend markers are only on few products, including all electronics, but all of them are sub 50%. Highest is 44%, rest are 30-33%.

How can you have "upwards trend" while they hit rock bottom?

That's not "rock bottom", though. The demand on MarketInsider is a reflection of how many competitors are selling products. Previously, there was only 1 person selling it, which is why it dropped from 100% (with 0 people selling it) to about 70%, nearly a 30% drop. Once you opened your store, now there are 2 people selling those items, so the demand drops another nearly 30% and you see numbers under 50%.

You'll still do very well with sales at those numbers!

That explanation is inconsistent with what I said and what I see.

- It wasn't 100% ever. It never even hit 80%. Highest I ever saw was like 77% (highest currently in 1 region is 72%).
- It is rock bottom as nothing in my game in any market at any point in time dropped below 29%.
- It dropped before I even opened, from near maximum to the minimum.
- Demand for gift shop stuff is above 60% across all areas with 3 businesses in each area.

[Mr. Payne]

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Originally posted by Mr. Payne:

I've seen the market flux like this many times, what I end up doing (regardless of competition ) is set up 1 of each store type in each of the 4 boroughs. Even the most basic shop, with great trained customer service and basic needs (music, cleanliness) always makes profit.

For electronics, I actually only use the 15 customer max small shops with great traffic and only have 1 stand of each of the 6 items (so 10 max customer) and they turn a hearty profit, IIRC 10~k a day. They're open from 16 hours a day on weekdays, and 12 hours a day on weekends.

Oddly enough, I never change prices on anything outside of lawyers, and I'm making approx 500-650k a day.

I started like that because for some reason the entire city wanted gift shops. Even now, 75 days later, gift shops are glued to the top of demand across all 4 regions, even though I have 1 open in each area, even though I have competition. I don't quite get it.

I play the game as demand isn't exactly based off supply. When coffee goes up (and there are tons of shops) I make more money, when it goes down I don't. I can open 2 shops of the same type and the profits don't really go down much between the two, overall it's at a profit. I'm at about 60 businesses, so it's really hard to gauge the market since I have a store for just about everything in all 4 spots. Now I sit and watch the money flow. Gift shops/florists are in my opinion some of the most stable income providers - I sell the exact same thing at both, just have different stock amounts to handle the primary/secondary item consideration.

[David Estes Creations]

Originally posted by Smartik1:

That explanation is inconsistent with what I said and what I see.

- It wasn't 100% ever. It never even hit 80%. Highest I ever saw was like 77% (highest currently in 1 region is 72%).
- It is rock bottom as nothing in my game in any market at any point in time dropped below 29%.
- It dropped before I even opened, from near maximum to the minimum.
- Demand for gift shop stuff is above 60% across all areas with 3 businesses in each area.

Correct, you didn't see 100% because there was a store there already. But that store was covering 30% of the demand for the product. If another store opens or starts selling that product, it will cover more of the demand of that product, so the demand will drop more.

Each store type can tolerate a different amount of competition, based on how many customers need that product. So stores have a bigger drop in demand than other stores. That's why gift shops still have more demand with 3 competitors than electronics stores do.

That doesn't mean demand is "rock bottom", it just means that the current number of competitors is nearly covering the demand for that product in that district.

[Smartik1]

Originally posted by David Estes Creations:

Originally posted by Smartik1:

That explanation is inconsistent with what I said and what I see.

- It wasn't 100% ever. It never even hit 80%. Highest I ever saw was like 77% (highest currently in 1 region is 72%).
- It is rock bottom as nothing in my game in any market at any point in time dropped below 29%.
- It dropped before I even opened, from near maximum to the minimum.
- Demand for gift shop stuff is above 60% across all areas with 3 businesses in each area.

Correct, you didn't see 100% because there was a store there already. But that store was covering 30% of the demand for the product. If another store opens or starts selling that product, it will cover more of the demand of that product, so the demand will drop more.

Each store type can tolerate a different amount of competition, based on how many customers need that product. So stores have a bigger drop in demand than other stores. That's why gift shops still have more demand with 3 competitors than electronics stores do.

That doesn't mean demand is "rock bottom", it just means that the current number of competitors is nearly covering the demand for that product in that district.

While I appreciate the explanation, it still does not match reality.

- Hell's Kitchen started with 0 electronic stores at the start of the game. The peak demand for the products was 60-75% ish (not 100%, nothing ever hit even 80%). When I was about to open mine, there already was 1 competing store. The peak demand for it was 60-75% ish.
- Still not clear on you disputing the minimum demand. As far as I can tell, there is a hard floor of 29% below which no product in no region ever drops. There are products with 2, 7, 21 businesses and none of them ever go below 29%.

Also, if 1 store opening can tank the demand from max to min, it means your store will be the one tanking the demand in the region when you open it, so there is no point following these "predictions" anyway, because whatever the number is becomes irrelevant.

[David Estes Creations]

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Also, if 1 store opening can tank the demand from max to min

It's not "tanking" the demand. It's satisfying some of the demand. There was unfulfilled demand, and you opened your store, which satisfies some of that demand, so the amount of unfulfilled demand goes down.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

there is no point following these "predictions"

They aren't predictions - they depict the current amount of unfulfilled demand. You directly impact this number when you sell more/less products in the district.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

There are products with 2, 7, 21 businesses

Yes, it depends on the product. Fast Food, for instance, has such a high volume of customers that many stores can all still be viable. Some items have a much lower volume of customers and the demand is satisfied much more quickly.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

none of them ever go below 29%

Which makes sense. The AI won't open new stores if the demand is too low, and existing stores will shut down if demand gets too low for them to be profitable

[Smartik1]

Originally posted by David Estes Creations:

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Also, if 1 store opening can tank the demand from max to min

It's not "tanking" the demand. It's satisfying some of the demand. There was unfulfilled demand, and you opened your store, which satisfies some of that demand, so the amount of unfulfilled demand goes down.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

there is no point following these "predictions"

They aren't predictions - they depict the current amount of unfulfilled demand. You directly impact this number when you sell more/less products in the district.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

There are products with 2, 7, 21 businesses

Yes, it depends on the product. Fast Food, for instance, has such a high volume of customers that many stores can all still be viable. Some items have a much lower volume of customers and the demand is satisfied much more quickly.

Originally posted by Smartik1:

none of them ever go below 29%

Which makes sense. The AI won't open new stores if the demand is too low, and existing stores will shut down if demand gets too low for them to be profitable

That once again goes against what you said. The demand tanked before my store was "open" to sell. It had no furniture, stock, employees, anything. I served exactly 0 customers. Does demand get satisfied the moment you pick a store category even if you have no sales?

You are also saying the 29% demand makes sense. Well, as I've never seen any product of any category go below 29%, that sounds like I could open 10 stores of the same type and all of them would keep demand at 29%. That also doesn't seem to make sense. I'll test it out later just for the sake of argument.

[jhughes]

Originally posted by Smartik1:

Originally posted by David Estes Creations:

It's not "tanking" the demand. It's satisfying some of the demand. There was unfulfilled demand, and you opened your store, which satisfies some of that demand, so the amount of unfulfilled demand goes down.

They aren't predictions - they depict the current amount of unfulfilled demand. You directly impact this number when you sell more/less products in the district.

Yes, it depends on the product. Fast Food, for instance, has such a high volume of customers that many stores can all still be viable. Some items have a much lower volume of customers and the demand is satisfied much more quickly.

Which makes sense. The AI won't open new stores if the demand is too low, and existing stores will shut down if demand gets too low for them to be profitable

That once again goes against what you said. The demand tanked before my store was "open" to sell. It had no furniture, stock, employees, anything. I served exactly 0 customers. Does demand get satisfied the moment you pick a store category even if you have no sales?

You are also saying the 29% demand makes sense. Well, as I've never seen any product of any category go below 29%, that sounds like I could open 10 stores of the same type and all of them would keep demand at 29%. That also doesn't seem to make sense. I'll test it out later just for the sake of argument.

It would make sense (to update demand based on number of stores of a TYPE), would it not? Once you create the store and select the TYPE, would you not want the market insider to update at least the primary items to show a reduction?

If the competition bought a store and started to set it up that is going to impact your bottom line sells once it opens. This is very easy to test. I will do it now. There certainly could also be minimum demand to make sure there is always a little demand for every major type.

This should be easy enough to test. I don't know the answer, but I will in a few minutes.

TEST:

1. I will buy a retail building and set it to a blank business .. I will do this in all 4 regions. I will record the top 10 demands by percent in the region.

2. I will then go past midnight and re-record the top ten demands. (In case the processing happens at the end of the day to change demand)

3. I will change all 4 buildings to the same type and see if it has any impact immediately on the numbers .. then I will wait until after midnight and check again.

4. I'll report back here if anything changed.

[Smartik1]

Originally posted by jhughes:

Originally posted by Smartik1:

That once again goes against what you said. The demand tanked before my store was "open" to sell. It had no furniture, stock, employees, anything. I served exactly 0 customers. Does demand get satisfied the moment you pick a store category even if you have no sales?

You are also saying the 29% demand makes sense. Well, as I've never seen any product of any category go below 29%, that sounds like I could open 10 stores of the same type and all of them would keep demand at 29%. That also doesn't seem to make sense. I'll test it out later just for the sake of argument.

It would make sense (to update demand based on number of stores of a TYPE), would it not? Once you create the store and select the TYPE, would you not want the market insider to update at least the primary items to show a reduction?

If the competition bought a store and started to set it up that is going to impact your bottom line sells once it opens. This is very easy to test. I will do it now. There certainly could also be minimum demand to make sure there is always a little demand for every major type.

This should be easy enough to test. I don't know the answer, but I will in a few minutes.

TEST:

1. I will buy a retail building and set it to a blank business .. I will do this in all 4 regions. I will record the top 10 demands by percent in the region.

2. I will then go past midnight and re-record the top ten demands. (In case the processing happens at the end of the day to change demand)

3. I will change all 4 buildings to the same type and see if it has any impact immediately on the numbers .. then I will wait until after midnight and check again.

4. I'll report back here if anything changed.

Would be good to see, but overall, I'd expect demand to change by number of customers served, not by buildings in existence. For example, my store could serve 5 customers an hour or 40 per hour depending on how I set it up. Shouldn't demand "satisfied" be based on customers that have been..."satisfied"? Would a customer stop wanting a product just because an empty building exists? They haven't actually bought anything in order to be satisfied.

I'd love to see the "demand" listed as absolute values rather than percentage. The percentage is meaningless as different businesses sell different volumes. For food for example, you could open a store serving 40 per hour and not make a dent on demand. For jewelry, you could sell 5 an hour and exhaust the market.

The demand indicator should help me decide the size of the business to open. It does not.

Edit: I gave up on the "demand" analytics entirely and the game got more fun. It's completely irrelevant. Products with highest unit cost are the best option no matter what. I set up an electronics store in Murray (where electronics demand is 30%) in a huge building with 40 foot traffic / 75 capacity and put enough stuff in to unlock the 75 capacity. Customers never even hit half of that per hour, but this store alone brings in 175k a day on average lol.