Knucklebones predetermined loss on the first bet?

[Rescue Toaster]

So, I easily won the first tutorial game of KnuckleBones against Ratau. The next game, where I bet 10 gold, I rolled 1, >5< times in a row. That's a massive statistical improbability ((1/6)^4 ) - 1 out of 7776 if my math is any good. Following that fantastic string of bad luck, I kept rolling only 2's until Ratau won. Of course, he rolled four 6's out of the next six rolls with the other results being 5's and 4's.

But wait, there's more!

I started a new game tonight after suffering from the bug where Tier 3 would not unlock; I wanted to start fresh to see how the game is supposed to more naturally play out. Well, of course, the same issue happened again! Not the exact same rolls, but similar results: I rolled 1's four or five times while Ratau rolled exclusively 6's and 5's and 4's again.

I was going to chalk the first loss up to horrific luck, but now that it's happened twice in a row I had to write something!

Is this all set? Are you supposed to lose? Also, has anyone else experienced this?

[Vexillarius]

Rolling 1, five times in a row isn't even remotely close to a 1 in 7000 chance. You have obviously never played a table top game before.

[Ozone]

Never lost a single game... the AI is very bad at this game, even at max difficulty.

[Deadoon]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Vexillarius:

Rolling 1, five times in a row isn't even remotely close to a 1 in 7000 chance. You have obviously never played a table top game before.

From a fresh start it is, especially with proper fair dice and an unbiased rolling mechanism.

[Vexillarius]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Deadoon:

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Vexillarius:

Rolling 1, five times in a row isn't even remotely close to a 1 in 7000 chance. You have obviously never played a table top game before.

From a fresh start it is, especially with proper fair dice and an unbiased rolling mechanism.

No, that's not correct. They have calculated the possible combinations you would get when you roll 5 dice. But if you roll 5 dice 7776 times your not going to get it roll each combination 1 time. That's not at all how probability works. In reality if you rolled 5 dice 7776 times you would get 5 ones come up dozen and dozens of times and many combinations would repeat over as well.
Rolling one dice is a 16.7 percent chance of it being a one. If you think 16.7% happening five times in a row is rare or unusual at all then as i said you haven't played table top games with actual dice in your hand.

[Enceladus]

I don't even waste my time on Knucklebone. Literally rolled like Five 1s in a row and lost. Not worth it, isn't even a fun minigame.

[Deadoon]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Vexillarius:

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Deadoon:

From a fresh start it is, especially with proper fair dice and an unbiased rolling mechanism.

No, that's not correct. They have calculated the possible combinations you would get when you roll 5 dice. But if you roll 5 dice 7776 times your not going to get it roll each combination 1 time. That's not at all how probability works. In reality if you rolled 5 dice 7776 times you would get 5 ones come up dozen and dozens of times and many combinations would repeat over as well.
Rolling one dice is a 16.7 percent chance of it being a one. If you think 16.7% happening five times in a row is rare or unusual at all then as i said you haven't played table top games with actual dice in your hand.

The chance of getting one five times in a row with a 5d6 is 1 in 7776. That is quite simply a fact. If we were to consider it from the perspective of any game that starts with a roll of 1 being observed more closely, then the probability is only (1/6)^4, which is a form of observation bias, which I accounted for by stating "fresh start" meaning any game start that has had no prior rolls.
Just like getting a 20 on a 2d10 is 1%. Compounding probability that is not influenced by prior rolls is kind of a key factor in statistics.
You are suffering from a observation bias due to those incidents sticking in your head more than the other thousands or 10's of thousands of dice rolls you've had.

[Ninian]

Deadoon is right on the money with observation bias.

The human mind is just... hardwired to see patterns, because it kept our ancestors from being eaten alive by predators who saw us as open season once we left the trees. Ironically this very tendency is actually what leads to cults/religions, bringing us to this game.

[Ritual of Ghosts]

I think you just have bad luck. I thought it was almost to easy because I kept winning. I'm pretty sure it's randomized though even if it feels like it's not.

[nul]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Ozone:

Never lost a single game... the AI is very bad at this game, even at max difficulty.

This.

[Ninian]

In general with Knucklebones, I can give two pieces of advice:

1. The ideal place to set up matching dice to multiply your score are in columns where your opponent has either already used up all their slots or are about to.

2. 99% of the time, it's better to use your rolls to delete the opponent's dice than build your own columns. The game is over as soon as one person can't make any moves and if you have a full set of dice and the opponent doesn't, the odds favor your automatic win.

[CyberShadow]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Rescue Toaster:

So, I easily won the first tutorial game of KnuckleBones against Ratau. The next game, where I bet 10 gold, I rolled 1, >5< times in a row. That's a massive statistical improbability ((1/6)^4 ) - 1 out of 7776 if my math is any good. Following that fantastic string of bad luck, I kept rolling only 2's until Ratau won. Of course, he rolled four 6's out of the next six rolls with the other results being 5's and 4's.

I added a section "Is Knucklebones rigged?" to my guide, it attempts to cover this in detail, please have a look:

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2848999174

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Rescue Toaster:

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย CyberShadow:

Literally https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

That's interesting. I suppose that's related to how people see the 'man on the moon'. Or Mary on a piece of toast, a water stain, etc.

Yep, that's Pareidolia, a type of Apophenia! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

[RoxxasTheDemonslayer]

beat him with ease both times.

then the game crashed and it loaded in before i played him and it took me 2 reloads to win the coin match.

90% seems to be luck, and that it foavers him or you for the match