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Will the numbers for Civ 7 go as high as Civ 6? Probably not. It simul-launched on several platforms.
Will the numbers peak above 80103 on Friday/Saturday, almost certainly.
Let's see if Civ 7 can even get past the Civ 5 peak of 91,363.
No matter how you look at it though the current numbers for Civ 7 are not good.
Personally I am waiting till Monday and if the player count hasn't cracked ~140k and the review score hasn't cracked 60% I'm gonna call it a flop.
I've spoken to a lot of streamers who played Civ almost exclusively and they are furious.
Even the ones who are not angry about the poor state of the game are incredulous.
When they released the Crossroads of the World DLC price on steam yesterday one prominent streamer insisted that couldn't possibly be correct and tabbed out of the game on stream to check. He was basically stunlocked and the stream derailed for a full 5 minutes, with aftershocks lasting until literally the end of the stream, and he said no one should pay $30 for 2 civs 4 leaders, and some wonder models.
Other major streamers have suggested, either in private or sometimes in public, that they might simply go back to Civ 6 or do a couple months of variety content, hoping that the devs would clean up their mess.
There's a big snowstorm in the US midwest and gaming/streaming numbers are going to spike, but potentially not for Civ 7.
Very much depends on the operational cost of development and the publisher/owner investment into development that now needs to be repaid in release and DLC revenue before any actual positive revenue is even made.
For a studio the size of Firaxis and the likely amount of funds their owner 2k had to pump into supporting development for so many years.... it's really not great.
Especially when they start to sit down and look at the release reception of the game and player engagement numbers and start to look at their initial post-release DLC revenue stream predictions and adjust their projections to fit more closely to reality.
There are likely a lot of concerns coming from the financial orientated folk that the middle-management types are currently trying to reassure that "Numbers will improve once xxx happens" so that the money deciders don't decide to shorten the projected period the company will continue to expend resources on the title for.
What makes you think It makes me feel better? I'm disappointed with what I've seen related to this game. I was disappointed right when the first gameplay previews dropped and it makes me feel bad that my worries were correct.
Btw. something else to consider:
Civ 7 had a lower release day peak than Civilization: Beyond Earth (86,892).
Beyond Earth was the worst iteration of Civilization I've ever played.
Civ 6 was also available on MacOS in Oct 2016 and a couple of months later on Linux. So no real difference there and Linux still has no major relevance in gaming neither to this day.
Civ 5 and 6 both had nose dives after their initial releases and only recovered over time.
We shall see the path Civ 7 takes. It will nose dive. The question is what the peak will be and whether or not it can recover after its inevitable nose dive. Civilization Beyond Earth did a nose dive and NEVER recovered. In fact it flat lined not long after release and even its DLC couldn't revive it.
In one reddit threat I saw console players were complaining about the UI. While apparently designed for consoles, it is not well designed for consoles (either).
Made the observation in another thread recently that based on a screenshot the OP shared that the UI was very much designed to work across PC, consoles and small form touch devices, whilst not really being tailored for any of them.
Seems perhaps that was pretty much spot on the mark.