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I'm still holding out for Steams Spring Sale next month anyway. I'm expecting at least 50% off by then. And if the game is still in a bad state I'll just let it sit until it's fixed. At $35 that's more palatable than at $70.
Maybe not 50 but 40 is still within the realm of possibility. After all, they are already doing a 20 for day 1. That, along with the lukewarm response from the civ playerbase in general. No matter who wins the internet arguments on the forums , corporate behaviour is consistent and they would want to get as much sales as they can before the next earnings call with shareholders.
Any other game I would probably agree, but Civilization? They're known for offering frequent and deep discounts. I wouldn't be surprised if we see greater than 75% by the Winter 2025 Sale.