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If you cheated and get banned, by hardware id as you said, no matter how many more Xbox Live account you create you will still be banned from all online services.
If you cheated and get banned, by XL id instead of hardware id, then you just have to create another XL account
P.S. If you get it on steam and found out online service is not working for you, just make sure you do not spend more than 2 hours to figure it out and request a refund
TL;DR: I swapped my corrupted saves with my OWN locally backed up saves and that was a Permanently bannable offence in Turn10's eyes.
I got hardware banned because I swapped my corrupted saves with my old locally backed up saves. If you've played FH4 before, you'll know that their could saving service is very bad. If your saves get corrupted locally, they will overwrite your working cloud saves and all your data will be deleted. Only way to recover your data then would be to ask support. That is a very long and drawn out process, and you are not guaranteed to get it back. Even if you do, everything is not returned. Your level is one of those things. Whatever cars you do get back, you get back as in game-gifts, and you have to manually accept each of them. When you have like 700+ cars and each car takes 5 seconds to redeem, it adds up very quickly. The entire process of writing to support and recovering your stuff takes up-to a week or so. Now, if this was a one time thing, I'd happily follow the process. But their service is so bad that my data was getting corrupted REGULARLY. I'm talking 3-4 times a month. As such, writing to support and waiting for weeks each time was not an option.
Then I had an Idea. I just periodically made local backup copies of my savefiles, and whenever my data would get corrupted, I would simply delete the save folder and replace it with the latest backup I had. I would lose some rank, cars, and items that I had gotten since I made that backup, but it was better than the alternative. I was saved from corruption at least 13-14 times using this method. I just never thought for the life of me that this would be a bannable offence because there was absolutely no way I was cheating/hacking or benefiting is ANY way at all by using this method.
But I guess Turn10 did not think so, and I got permanently, hardware ID banned in a recent banwave. The funny thing is, a couple of famous YouTubers also got the same ban, but those were overturned within days. I was but a nobody, so all I got was the automated "All bans are final and irreversible" messages.
I lost all my my progress because save file being corrupted as well, thankfully it happened exactly after I bought the game (had 150 hours worth progress through couple months of game pass), so I just refunded it and decided to take a break.
They can really avoid it by simply having 2 or more savefiles on the server, other ones to roll back on. And it will be justified looking at how much time we spend and the premium money we pay to microsoft.
And in your case as well they could have warned before directly hardware banning you.
I am glad I didn't start a new game back then because I am sure I would have tried the backup-way as well in case of any future corruptions.
And weird that I have never faced save game corruption issue in any other game all my life, so Turn10 should do better.
Given that information + info on the Steam product page about Steam cloud functionality, there is some chance that it will be only Steam mechanic handling this functionality in the Steam version.
I don't have to fear anymore.
But still there is a possibility that the Xbox Live Client is able to submit your save data to the server for automated cheat analysis
So likely you would still get banned with backup save
Steam edition will require Live account for Cross-play features.
.
However, Playground doesn't ban for nothing. If they ban, they have real good reason for that. If you appeal and prove your innocence, they should have unbanned it a long time ago.
Their cloud save? it's xbox cloud. It is bad? no, your gaming behavior is bad. Corrupted? You obviously mod your game, mod your save to it got corrupted.
I got my save corrupted and it will sync with correct data all the time. Why? offline play can corrupt save due to hardware issue but once you get online, Xbox cloud will sync your gameplay immediately. permanent corruption is never available.
your "backup" excuse is useless and out of question: cheating.
I doubt this version will use Xbox Live for save data(proven save is not crossplatform). Playground and Turn10 will monitor cheating on their servers. No need to submit save data, once you get online, they have your game data by doing local analysis, meaning they will only need to get your stats to identify cheating. They do store your savestate hashes and stats on their servers for analysis, abnormal data will likely get you banned if history doesn't match. Meaning on your save, there could be several hashes and timestamps, encrypted, of last sync status, modding your save or game will corrupt those, or having unlisted history; they will notice that, trigger a flag on your account for review. Or they have another way to review your game stats for abnormalities. Former is the common way to detect cheating for Offline-support games. OP excuses for banning is not reasonable. I got corruption due to hardware failure and network failure all the time, (notice in Event viewer, there is logs). And they are unlikely to get corrupted on Xbox consoles. The only way is on PC.
Since I faced the issue I had looked up other people who had faced similar problem, it just happens randomly!
Don't go on assuming that everyone facing corrupt save modded the game, some people are just plainly unlucky and I can't help but feel bad for them.
Maybe you are lucky enough to have perfect internet and lots of storage so never had to face the issue but xbox cloud isn't perfect from my experience.