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For comparison, eyeballing would suggest that chance seems to be about 50% on the second map and 25% on the first.
The third map is full of delicious nodes, so it is still well worth hunting, for large game at least, during act 3:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2944560196
Also spoiler:
Hunting/exploring/researching on the map in week 32 is entirely pointless and does nothing, except it might leave you with 0 unassigned crew, which is very harmful. Make sure to leave 1 crew unassigned that week.
Do scouts get freezing status too or only the hunting teams?
I was kinda surprised that even getting food from the pile makes people freeze.
The scouting action doesn't cause freezing, but the scouts themselves are not immune if you send them to hunt. Researchers sent to research also get freezing, as does anyone sent to retrieve penguins (as you already noted, and assuming you slaughtered the penguin colony, you monster!).
Also of note: Any unrepaired hole in the canopy causes a random crew member to get freezing each turn, and seemingly does nothing else.
Yeah, I had to slaughter the colony. Those penguins were so cute... But crew comes first.