Number of players bets

[Grizmo]

I watched many youtube videos, including the recent ones. I think I might buy it but I still have this quite skepticism mind set that this will die within few months. This is a problem that I have as well as others is that fighters game tend to die so quickly. Why spend if one year from now, it's gonna be dead?

But with that being said, with all of that youtube viewership count from top 500k down to low 50k views... I wager 25k will purchase this game at start up. Then it will drop down to few K in the next 6 months.

What says you?

[Tyrone Biggums]

引用自 Shizuma：

引用自 Renka：

i won't really "bet" since it is a 'brand new' fighting game, but i will def consider getting it if it have a great number of players at launch

Exactly, this is pretty hard to bet. I predicted that Strive would be successfull but I didn't expect it to be so high. So for a licence like DNF Duel that is unknown to the fgc it is even harder to tell. I'd say its curve might looks like KOF XV one.

honestly even after it tapers down and lets say theres around 600-1k concurrent thats still pretty decent it might be higher who knows how much reach the DFO name has the rollback is also something to factor in id say give it a month for the true numbers

[OVALLODA]

Below 2k on the next day

[勇気]

引用自 Shizuma：

I love fighting games and I enjoy watching their steam stats in order to predict it. Got even some Google Docs on it (Steam forum considers it's a threat for unknown reason so I removed it)

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2816826153
It happens that I was also hooked at DNF Duel during the 2 betas. All of this to just set up the context.

My answer to your question is that... I don't know. What's important is not how many players the game will have at startup but how many will stay. Melty Blood TL had a pretty good startup but crashed completely. On the other hand KOF XV started with less players but the playerbase doesn't drop down that much.

The game is not a major IP but being ASW people will give it a try. Thanks to the awesome netcode and good matchmaking system people will stay. Even if the game drops down to 500 players avg during a month, the netcode will be able to handle the lack of players. So even in 1 year, you'll still be able to play against random people online.

That being said this is just projections, that could be better or worse, this is only my guess. Time will tell.

I personally refunded Melty Blood when it flat out didn't work.

[Shizuma]

引用自 勇気：

I personally refunded Melty Blood when it flat out didn't work.

That was a smart move, I should have done the same.

[Peach Pachyderm]

GG Strive brought a lot of new people to the FGC and I'd be surprised if this game doesn't piggyback of it's huge success somewhat. Especially given that its's control scheme is going to be much less daunting for new players, as well as being an Arcsys game.
Furthermore, having the DFO fan base will help bolster numbers quite a bit.
I definitely agree that the lack of proper regional pricing is going to hurt the LATAM/SA numbers somewhat. However, in countries with stronger currencies this games current release price is actually cheaper than the current RRP for Strive. Im in Australia and Strive is still $20 more than the release price of DNF Duel.
Just to be clear, I do agree that the game should have better regional pricing. I just think it's going to be pretty popular in Europe, US and Asia where in most cases that won't have a major impact.

[Tyrone Biggums]

im sure it will piggyback strive piggy backed of dbfz hell dbfz is 1 huge reason why strive did so well arcsys is now on the map this game is gonna be perfectly fine

[Hideo スパイ]

I assume 20k online on launch week and probably around 2k in a few months

[DJukor]

If it lives a couple of months i'd be happy. I'm more worried it will die in couple of weeaks.

[Tyrone Biggums]

引用自 DJukor：

If it lives a couple of months i'd be happy. I'm more worried it will die in couple of weeaks.

strive and dbfz are doing just fine

[T.E.W.S]

discord fighter like every fighting game / Anime fighter

[Shizuma]

引用自 T.E.W.S：

discord fighter like every fighting game / Anime fighter

You mean like Strive and DBFZ ?

[T.E.W.S]

引用自 Shizuma：

引用自 T.E.W.S：

discord fighter like every fighting game / Anime fighter

You mean like Strive and DBFZ ?

ye there barely people playing just to drop in and play.
much easier and faster just to pop to a game channel and ask if someone wanna play

[Shizuma]

Strive is the 3rd most active fighting game on Steam, right behind Tekken 7 and SFV. So if you can't find people on Strive, that's not just about anime fighters, but all fighting game genre that is dead in your area.