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To win the arbitration you need to speak "softly" and show how reasonnable you are and your claims are legitimate. Get favorable relation with all countries around you, befriend them with ambassy or political decision they may like. You might also need to keep your fleet at home but I'm not sure about that. So open border with religious pilgrim and support of reforming the mining company, commie support also is required I believe.
To have Smolak agree right away you need to have a trade deal with his country AND share all information about the attack but it will prevent you to use those proof in negotiation with Lespia (he will also ask for the house of your mom that bastard).
You can win the AN by showing how unreliable he is and say how hard you tried to compromise but no one can allow a country to steal illegitimate territory or will be a dangerous step. Also ask for peacekeeping mission.
About the economy what I recommend is not to subsidy it but transport to favor trade and mobility (especially the train event) and building state factory to either help local economy or manufacture equipment you could sell to access even more possibility. What I generally did was to sell all the weapons and energy I reasonnably could turn 2 and build weapons factory and energy infrastructure to sustain it. Run at a loss of energy because of the trade deal with Rumburg and be at 0 with negative income at the turn i make a deal with Smolak.
Navy focus at the begining prevent you from the extra budget at start but if you have influence you can sell the ships/submarines for quite a lot of money and develloping the port pleases rumburg, produce ships and helps local economy for only one energy per turn. There is also a military base that produce ship I believe.
You can add small arms in the trade deal with smolak and sell them for extra money if needed or keep it for stronger army and bigger autorithy income so It's a win win win IMO.
And at last the best advice I can you is to spend your money only the turn has ended to be sure you won't miss an opportunity to do a decision because your out of money at this ecact moment even if you could sell something in stocks but cannot because dialogue is going.
Gas field arbitration is hard to win. You need the support of the CSP (Hegel), Morella, AND Derdia, while also being professional and diplomatic. Attempt to diffuse the situation and reassert pales independence. Lespia and the entire ATO will side against you, as Lespia has significant interests in Pales, and the ATO in Lespia.
Smolak is your enemy and doesn't deserve to be reasoned with, for reasons the above comment states. If you are diplomatic and have the support of the CSP (Hegel again) and either Morella or Derdia, you can win AN support. Even if you don't, minor peaceful ATA support is enough to win the referendum, but only if you only fund the ATA and not resistance groups.
In both AN cases the ATO sides against you. This is because it is the will of their stronghold on the continent, Lespia, who wants to see you weak.
Patricio Alvarez