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You might need more than just Wehlen and Agnolia - I know sometimes I think Lespia won't join the war if they think you'll lose/are weak.
Or maybe Agnolia decided to ghost you when you went planned economy dictator, they like market economy democracy etc.
Sounds like you didn't actually get an alliance during the trade talks somehow? Van Hoorten should offer it if he likes you, which if you built the highway, agreed to his improved trade deal AND agreed to support his claim on the island, he should be loving you. It's still possible to choose to NOT ally with him, which sounds like what happened.
If you definitely chose the alliance but it didn't count it for some reason, then that sounds like another bug has crept in...
I've actually also heard that if you modernise your military and choose all the right strategies that you can even defeat Rumburg all by yourself - or at least this was possible at one point, not sure if that's still the case..
Indeed I did not but I only realized this at the end, I'm 100% sure I never had the option to ally with them infact as I never had that line of talk neither at the meeting with him nor afterwards I simply took for granted that with the treaty and my recognition of Agnolia sovereignity over the island, alliance would be a matter of fact and they would have come to my aid at the required time.
I was told that in order for Iosef pincer strategy to work I absolutely needed at least one ally to help me with my plan, previously I tried to send Wehlen on its own operation on Lars and Merdon and I equally lost.
My economy is not doing good, or better, I have green military production and a stable uptrend *despite* the debt crisis and a tremendously negative budget.
During the war meeting Soll said something about the need to have both stable production *and* good infrastructure for our logistical network to support the dash on Thornburg. Since I had infra in the red for not having built either Morna or Benfi I reloaded the game and expanded the Benfi airport in the hope of getting infrastructure in the green. We'll see if that's enough to overturn the result of the war.
I also decided to prepare the Sordish war machine in the eve of our plane getting shot down by Rumburg since I read that doing so would grant a bonus to my military and could eventually mitigate the bad effects of high debt/bad economy.
I also couldn't get Rumburg out of OMEC because I actively partook into Operation Beartrap as I took the Total Bl*d Death route in order to root out their threat and ensure my ally Wehlen can march their troops through to help in the war. That and I tend to prefer getting rid of "Livia".
Apparently you want to not cooperate extensively with Smolak to solve the Bludish question via military means (shutting down your borders) and to not have the spy killed when Lucian finds her out but arresting her and use that line about Rumburgian spies at the One to One or whatever is called intreview in Kyrute. During the interview you have to take the most peaceful-sounding options and try to paint Rumburg as the aggressor by any mean necessary while downplaying your own geopolitical involvements if necessary, for instance if you support Agnolia with the island you can still say you'd only support a peacekeeping mission and invite both parts to the diplomatic table.
I'm on Dictator run, no emergency powers, took out Orso and most of the judges, Soll even supported me in the end and shows up at war meeting. I didn't want to ally with either Valgsland and Lespia because I don't want to end up under the sphere of either ATO or Contana.
If you are doing a dictator run, I recommand removing the independance of the central bank by decree (if you have the strong decrees), it helps a lot if you trigger the debt crisis.
Indeed on the Discord they said that in the new version economy plays a vital role in the success of the war. A bummer because I followed guides where it was said that as long as you listened to Iosef economy wasn't that important since the war relied on other factors such as speed of execution.
I just have to do a new run from scratch.
You do not need an economic recovery. I defeated Rumburg in an offensive war while still in a recession (but having prevented the depression). To be clear though, I focused my investments heavily on building up productive capacity by investing in the Conriat industrial zone and the Sordish military industry. Also built the H-3 highway, but it seemed not to make a difference relative to the L-1.
Almost goes without saying, but I funded and modernized the military - focusing on the air force. I chose Iosef's pincer attack and made a gambit for the capital. Valgsland was my chief ally, I had them send in the marines in a diversionary attack.
But my knowledge is probably outdated by now. I usually don't bother and just join the NATO or the commies. Cause, well, war gives you a clear election W and I like some alternative endings. Maybe I will go for war when I try autocrat route to get Sol on war council.