how do dice rolls work

[the Literal Worst]

maybe im just insanely unlucky, but i have a very hard time believing this system tries to mimic dice rolls, above 12 is an outlier, my average is 5.

am i just unlucky or is it not the probability not actually based on a dice roll?

[fauxpas]

Originally posted by the literal worst:

maybe im just insanely unlucky, but i have a very hard time believing this system tries to mimic dice rolls, above 12 is an outlier, my average is 5.

am i just unlucky or is it not the probability not actually based on a dice roll?

I tend to feel the same way but it's probably just bias where you only notice the strings of misses but don't pay attention to the hits.

[ajfusch]

You're just unlucky I guess. There is no reason the dice rolls shouldn't work like regualr dice rolls (with a well made die that isn't weighted due to shoddy production. So a die that's hard to get irl).

[the Literal Worst]

so when i say my average is 5 and above 12 is an outlire, thats from tracking the actual rolls, not a feeling.

again it might just be complete bad luck, but its not exactly bias

[ajfusch]

How many rolls did you take into account and seriously tracked, like writing down what you rolled? Anything below 50 times can be disregarded, I'd say.

[the Literal Worst]

Originally posted by ajfusch:

How many rolls did you take into account and seriously tracked, like writing down what you rolled? Anything below 50 times can be disregarded, I'd say.

it was only 100 rolls in a row, not enough for a serious test but also not inconsequential

[ajfusch]

Hmmm .... that's strange.

[the Literal Worst]

i might be super unlucky, but my friend mentioned he felt the same about king maker and wotr (this is my first one and honestly i havent gotten far) it was just very.... noticeable when you keep dying do to never hitting an attack

[the Literal Worst]

if you are curious what RNJesus gave me

[9, 5, 6, 4, 6, 4, 4, 9, 7, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 7, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 7, 4, 8, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4, 5, 18, 2, 8, 2, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 7, 6, 5, 2, 5, 4, 8, 13, 2, 3, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 7, 3, 5, 1, 16, 2, 6, 3, 1, 1, 8, 8, 7, 2, 2, 3, 7, 1, 2, 19, 2, 2, 9, 5, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 14, 15, 4, 5, 3, 9, 8]

the string i compiled while playing (its in the form of a python list cause thats how i checked in the end)

[the Literal Worst]

it actually felt like i was rolling the mythical 1d9 XD

[StickyFingaz]

This game is fake RNG, we all know that :)

[GunStarX]

I feel like they changed something so you roll less 1s. I've gotten a ton of 2s lately

[the Literal Worst]

i wish there was a mod that made it weightless random (i wont say mine is normal but from what i hear, it certainly is weighted)

[Silyon]

Originally posted by the literal worst:

if you are curious what RNJesus gave me

[9, 5, 6, 4, 6, 4, 4, 9, 7, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 7, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 7, 4, 8, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4, 5, 18, 2, 8, 2, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 7, 6, 5, 2, 5, 4, 8, 13, 2, 3, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 7, 3, 5, 1, 16, 2, 6, 3, 1, 1, 8, 8, 7, 2, 2, 3, 7, 1, 2, 19, 2, 2, 9, 5, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 14, 15, 4, 5, 3, 9, 8]

the string i compiled while playing (its in the form of a python list cause thats how i checked in the end)

Tracks with my own experiences, both from patches ago and recently. Rolling sub-10 is frequent, and anything in double-digits a rarity. The actual dice I have sitting next to me give me a better result spread than the game does and forces me to employ save-scum tactics just to not get crushed by garbage RNG killing me in normal encounters or depriving me of noteworthy loot like Nenio's stupid masks. I hate having to save-scum.

[the Literal Worst]

Originally posted by Silyon:

Tracks with my own experiences, both from patches ago and recently. Rolling sub-10 is frequent, and anything in double-digits a rarity. The actual dice I have sitting next to me give me a better result spread than the game does and forces me to employ save-scum tactics just to not get crushed by garbage RNG killing me in normal encounters or depriving me of noteworthy loot like Nenio's stupid masks. I hate having to save-scum.

im glad its not just me... again i would love a mod that makes the dice rolls unweighted cause at this point with others agreeing, i have a hard time believing it isnt

[oburec]

I've seen this kind of thread many times, both about Kingmaker and Wrath. I get where you're coming from, I've had my own doubts sometimes, But, to be honest, it is almost assuredly your bias speaking.

I remember people saying they examined the code and saw the dice rolls come straight from Unity uniform random generator, and I've seen some empirical tests done. But there was always the thought that maybe they missed something, so I've just did my own test.

I've started a new game with only toybox mod enabled, set my party's and the centipedes' from the 1st encounter HP to some high values, ran the combat for 10-15 minutes, then parsed the combat log to get attack roll values from it.

Here are the resulting counts for the attack roll values of 1812 attacks.

EDIT: Formatting failed, but hopefully the point is clear

For my party

     value        count
       18             67
       13             66
       5              64
       7              64
       20            63
       12             61
       6              60
       1              57
       10             57
       2              56
       17             55
       15             53
       8              52
       14             52
       4              50
       11             50
       16             50
       3              48
       9              48
       19            48
[\code]

For the enemies

     value         count
       17             43
       19             43
       2              42
       12             41
       3              40
       7              40
       13             40
       11             38
       15             38
       5              36
       8              36
       16             36
       18             35
       6              30
       1              28
       4              27
       9              27
       20             25
       10             24
       14             22
[\code]

total 

value count
13    106
7     104
12    102
18    102
5     100
2      98
17     98
19     91
15     91
6      90
11     88
20     88
3      88
8      88
16     86
1      85
10     81
4      77
9      75
14     74
[\code]

I see no discernable unfairness and it seems very likely that if I record 10k or 100k rolls then I'll see something very close to uniform distribution.