Secret pots questions

[Babinski]

So I put an undo grass in the secret pot, one day later nothing about the item has changed (but the game acknowledges its been in for a day). I extract it and it doesnt register as a new item. I figured maybe the devs made it so you couldnt abuse it by making Undo grass more accessible.

Yesterday I inserted a strength and alertness bracelets in the pots, and as far as I can tell nothing about them has changed either. What gives? Do I need to wait more than a day for them to change more? If I put the undo grass in for two days would I have gotten it as a new item?

[XCh]

It is purely random. I first let a strength bracelet for 5 days without any changes, then I replaced it with a growth bracelet and it got a new perk the next day. There is fixed probability for a change to happen each day. But in the worst case you may let an item baking for 7 days and not get any changes.

[Babinski]

Originally posted by XCh:

It is purely random. I first let a strength bracelet for 5 days without any changes, then I replaced it with a growth bracelet and it got a new perk the next day. There is fixed probability for a change to happen each day. But in the worst case you may let an item baking for 7 days and not get any changes.

Im starting to think something is wrong with mine. After 1 day not affecting the undo grass, two days have passed and neither of my bracelets that were inserted have changed either.. is this common?

[HiddenAway]

I had 2 items in my pots. One bracelet changed (an Alert Bracelet). The other didn't. Are you using both pots at the same time?

[Linkedwulf]

So as far as i understand it. Every time you insert an item it has a chance to change into a new item the next day. This chance is not 100% so sometimes it will still be the same item the next day.

As far as my testing went this basic chance to create a new item happens only once at the start. If it did not change the first day you can keep it in there forever and it will not change.

However if you take it back and insert it into the pot again it will have a new chance to change the next day.

So think of it as two rolls. The first one happens when you insert it. It rolls *IF* the item will change at all, if that fails it won't do anything and you can just take it back the next day. If it succeeds it will roll what the changes are and you can decide between keeping the new item letting it brew another day or discarding it into the void.

[Yarrr!]

Originally posted by Covid-X:

Originally posted by XCh:

It is purely random. I first let a strength bracelet for 5 days without any changes, then I replaced it with a growth bracelet and it got a new perk the next day. There is fixed probability for a change to happen each day. But in the worst case you may let an item baking for 7 days and not get any changes.

Im starting to think something is wrong with mine. After 1 day not affecting the undo grass, two days have passed and neither of my bracelets that were inserted have changed either.. is this common?

This is working as intended, there's a % chance something will change, and the longer it's been in the pot the more likely it is something will change.

First time I put something in it took me 5 days before I registered a change, haven't had this long a period repeat yet, but it's definitely a possibility it'll take a while.

[XCh]

According to the wiki[shiren.wikifoundry.com], the empirically based theory is that there is a fixed chance of 1/3 per item of there being a change. The longer the item is left baking, the "better" the changes can potentially be. But the probability of there being a change at all stays the same. Now that I have the six pots going, the probability stated in the wiki seems on point. Can't tell for the quality of the changes.

Im starting to think something is wrong with mine. After 1 day not affecting the undo grass, two days have passed and neither of my bracelets that were inserted have changed either.. is this common?

This has the same occurence probability as my bracelet which did not change in 5 days. Going by the 1/3 chance, this would be a probability of ~13% is my math is correct ((2/3) ** 5, right ?). This is far from improbable. Don't fall for the gambler's fallacy, "loosing" several times in a row doesn't suddenly boost our chances of success. The probability will stay the same for our next roll, whether a change occured or not. ....unless the game's code is effectively boosting our chance of success on failure, but so far there is no reason to think so.

[Babinski]

Originally posted by XCh:

According to the wiki[shiren.wikifoundry.com], the empirically based theory is that there is a fixed chance of 1/3 per item of there being a change. The longer the item is left baking, the "better" the changes can potentially be. But the probability of there being a change at all stays the same. Now that I have the six pots going, the probability stated in the wiki seems on point. Can't tell for the quality of the changes.

Im starting to think something is wrong with mine. After 1 day not affecting the undo grass, two days have passed and neither of my bracelets that were inserted have changed either.. is this common?

This has the same occurence probability as my bracelet which did not change in 5 days. Going by the 1/3 chance, this would be a probability of ~13% is my math is correct ((2/3) ** 5, right ?). This is far from improbable. Don't fall for the gambler's fallacy, "loosing" several times in a row doesn't suddenly boost our chances of success. The probability will stay the same for our next roll, whether a change occured or not. ....unless the game's code is effectively boosting our chance of success on failure, but so far there is no reason to think so.

Its been 3 days and neither of the bracelets have changed i dont know if you can do the math on that but it seems weird. also coupled with the fact that my undo grass also didnt change in the day i had it in, thats like 0/7