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You need a mid to long distance race with 18+ horses
Don't bother with greens for surface/distance, they just improve the base odds without giving enough benefit for a roughy
My strategy: 1) chosen horse has to prefer to run in front or in the middle 2) start very well out of the gate 3) get in front of the pack early and against the rail then conserve sprint energy while you... 4) let the perfect sprint energy zone come to you as the horses catch up [and don't let anyone separate you from the rail]
At this point, if I cannot stay ahead of the main body of horses AND efficiently charge my sprint bar, then I will most likely lose. If one lone rider charges forward and gets a HUGE lead, I ignore them because I'm sticking to the rail AND most of the AI's will eventually try to drop back into that horse's preferred position. From here on, the race is about timing. You start to learn how much sprint energy you can waste because you have the distance available to recharge it.
5) once your sprint energy bar is close to full you can sprint more often, this is where long races come in handy 6) start sprinting at the home stretch BEFORE your main competition starts sprinting [the ideal home-stretch sprinting distance depends on your horses' stats and how strong the competition is, often around 300m from the finish is safe for me]
Hope that helps.
Matching or at least making sure ground preference isn't red is also crucial, as that affects your horse's running speed! If you horse doesn't like the surface it won't do well ^^
Good Luck!