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Carol was pretty much what was left after everyone else... James did not even come, her Cousin had no reason, he actually thanked her for helping him through some dark times and the AA program, and there are absolutely ZERO hints there are any issues in the relationship.... also she sat close to her glass, there is no card from her (no even a card for the birthday?! srsly?) so it pretty much has been a game of "who did NOT do it" and Carol was left
I'd only add that another piece to this is that Jessica is out of town during that time, visiting her mother in LA (from both the calendar and the letter from her mother in the table beside the sofa.) That letter does indicate that Ronnie and Jessica did have some problems, but the evidence against Carol is definitely stronger. But yeah, it really mostly all boils down to the receipt in Ronnie's wallet and the matchbook in Carol's purse.
Carol was having an affair with Ronnie. We can find an abortion's clinic card in Ronnie's wallet that indicates that she was pregnant and he wanted her to make an abortion. If that isn't a clear reason, I don't know what could be.