Battle Prediction very unreliable since update?

[KingKickAss]

Ever since the latest DLC(The update that came with it) dropped, I feel like the game is lying to me a lot of the time with these battle predictions.
I've had so many instances where the game has said I will win "Decisively" only to watch my army get washed. Previously it seemed rather rare to lose a battle that said "You will probably win".

Anybody else experiencing this?

[druzilsupreme]

Yep. Feels like a lot of the battle balance has changed and the predictions haven't caught up yet.

[fambaa]

If you have multiple armies travelling to a battle thats already ongoing and it tells you will win that is not correct if you had that problem

Thats a trick I use to beat way stronger AI armies that siege something like winning with 20K vs 50K, just have to engage a smaller side army with your big stack, and the AI will then try to join the battle travelling towards it but throwing in small stack after stack at it while everyone is getting killed.

Did you experience something like that in reverse? It will still show green and "winning" but thats wrong.

Other than that I have not seen that. But the predictions are not extremely accurate, because troops get those staging buffs, so when you think you have a small counter it could actually be pretty big.

Things like counter effectiveness and obviously lots of champions and champion effectiveness helps.

[KingKickAss]

Originally posted by fambaa:

If you have multiple armies travelling to a battle thats already ongoing and it tells you will win that is not correct if you had that problem

Thats a trick I use to beat way stronger AI armies that siege something like winning with 20K vs 50K, just have to engage a smaller side army with your big stack, and the AI will then try to join the battle travelling towards it but throwing in small stack after stack at it while everyone is getting killed.

Did you experience something like that in reverse? It will still show green and "winning" but thats wrong.

Other than that I have not seen that. But the predictions are not extremely accurate, because troops get those staging buffs, so when you think you have a small counter it could actually be pretty big.

Things like counter effectiveness and obviously lots of champions and champion effectiveness helps.

Single army fighting another single army.
I had one earlier that was said to be a decisive loss(Skull icon) but I couldn't see why that could be when my units counter theirs, my army was bigger, favorable terrain for my army, and then my army won.

It really seems like the entire system is out of whack at the moment.

[Blutwurst]

and dont forgett the extreme unpredicted army growing of you opponent. i started a war vs a viking who invaded scottland. his army counted 8000 men but while the war was raging his army grows to 11000+ men. and thats just one of many examples i had.

[Moose]

Yeah the balance is off

[CrUsHeR]

https://ck3.paradoxwikis.com/Warfare#The_advantage_modifier

This was increased from 2% to 10%

So just a few lucky battle rolls can give you absolutely decisive advantages. The prediction means less than it ever did.

[Lera]

Originally posted by KingKickAss:

Originally posted by fambaa:

If you have multiple armies travelling to a battle thats already ongoing and it tells you will win that is not correct if you had that problem

Thats a trick I use to beat way stronger AI armies that siege something like winning with 20K vs 50K, just have to engage a smaller side army with your big stack, and the AI will then try to join the battle travelling towards it but throwing in small stack after stack at it while everyone is getting killed.

Did you experience something like that in reverse? It will still show green and "winning" but thats wrong.

Other than that I have not seen that. But the predictions are not extremely accurate, because troops get those staging buffs, so when you think you have a small counter it could actually be pretty big.

Things like counter effectiveness and obviously lots of champions and champion effectiveness helps.

Single army fighting another single army.
I had one earlier that was said to be a decisive loss(Skull icon) but I couldn't see why that could be when my units counter theirs, my army was bigger, favorable terrain for my army, and then my army won.

It really seems like the entire system is out of whack at the moment.

Yeah mate give it another 7 years for them to fix core game mechanics like this, they'll surely do it after releasing 4 more DLCs for the price of a full release game.

[Abacus]

When matches are closer, the added random elements.

hints at getting a "tactic" system later on.

but yeah, the closer the match up, the less assured the result. They mentioned this in one of the last Dev diaries.

[bwc153]

I noticed as an adventurer the game also doesn't know how to handle it when you have a ton of bonuses to your MAA. Battle Advantage is definitely not part of it as I can send the army without a leader and still win.

[ShepherdOfCats]

It has also told me I'm going to lose and the outcome ends up being a stack-wiped AI.