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HOWEVER, it's easy to overstate just how "Peaceful" the Heian Period was. For starters, the Northeastern Frontier with the Emishi remained a consistent problem, first in the form of outright independent non-Yamato states and peoples (probably Tribal ones) that resisted the Japanese government and so humiliated the existing military patterns based largely on adaptations of Chinese and Korean models that it helped start an emphasis on mounted archers and retinues, and after the Emishi were subdued on willful and distant "Japanese" country officials like the Abe and Northern Fujiwara.
There were also problems at home. This is the era of Taira no Masakado and Fujiwara no Sumitomo, both of whom emerged from regional warfare and land struggles within the system and who ultimately threatened the structure of the country as a whole. You also had politicking and maneuvers within the system, and while that rarely sparked into outright war until the end it did cause problems, namely a series of armed (and violent) coups or coup attempts like the the Hogen and Hejii "Disturbances."
I agree this should be a less violent struggle than say Iberia or Persia, but I do think it should have the prospect for warfare, especially since it was rarely completely absent (even if it was more typically on a pettier level with different vassals of the court fighting each other).
Moreover, it is worth noting that while I do think it would be a mistake to say there was a "Shogunate" ruling over all of Japan during this period as opposed to either direct rule by the Imperial Court or veiled dictatorship by either the Cloistered Emperor's Court or by a Civilian/Courtly Bureaucrat like Fujiwara no Michenaga, but there was a Shogun and "Shogunate" fitting in to the role of "Marshal" more or less, with their own sort of nested government, which just came to dominate in time.
I feel like there should be at least five or so outcomes for the struggle.
1. Imperial Reformation: More or less complete control of the Taika-Taiho Reforms, cementing the Court's power over the country by both conquering the Emishi and subjugating the vassals (including the court rulership) to their power, cementing Japan as an Administrative/Imperial Admin government like that in China, Eastern Rome, or Korea.
2. Shogunate Supreme: More or less the historical outcome(s): One family of country nobility manages to amass military power, crush the autonomy of the court (both imperial and court aristos) as well as its rivals, avoid being usurped (hello Hojo), annex the Emishi, integrate with the aristocracy , and cement themselves as a military dictatorship.
2.A. Court and Bakufu in Accord: Kind of representing the ideal of the late Tokugawa, in which the Shogunate and Court co-exist.
2.B: Solo Shogunate: Where the Shogun outright decides the Tenno is no longer needed and outright abolishes the court and the position or at least changes it beyond recognition.
3. Command by the Court: Representing a kind of "Civilian" courtly dictatorship by the Fujiwara, in which one clan of court nobles manages to secure power against all opposition and reassert control over the Emperor, the Shogun, and their noble competitors while conquering the Emishi.
4. Return of the Old Ways: A Fluke Ending ala That One from the Intermezzo, in which the Emishi intervene on the matter, avoid being co-opted, and basically conquer back "Japan" or vast parts of it.
5. Warring States: In which the system breaks down and what started as limited warfare and intrigue becomes balkanized, open warring states like what we see with the Onin War.
Of course as you might know, all of these happened historically to one degree or another within the time frame of the game or close to it, so I could see some way or mechanism to "restart" it even after it is 'Ended."
I agree. You're correct there should be a very lite struggle mechanic of sorts, but most of the conflict being largely self-contained under the umbrella of the Imperial Court, the main exception being the Genpei War, and I'm not even sure how they will implement that as a scripted event, like would it be a struggle mechanic between two vassals, the Taira and the Minamoto, that explodes into open warfare, and how would the government type change? I have no clue. They'll have to transform the Imperial Court into a landless title after the Genpei War like in the Sengoku mod? I don't know.
But for instance with the 867 start date, how would they simulate the rise of the Fujiwara clan? An Imperial marriage mechanic of sorts? Courtly intrigue mechanics? I have no clue.
The Heian period is not a popular subject in video games at all beyond onmyouji (magic) RPG gameplay, so I'm curious about how Paradox will implement Heian government, religion, and culture because it's quite different from what you see elsewhere.