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Make sure members of your court like you so they won't join schemes against you.
Go through your court, vassals etc and find who has high intrigue or such traits. it could be them.
This will at the very least raise your chances of finding or even disrupting the plot.
Greedy and ambitious are also traits to watch out for I'd say.
Otherwise it's based on a bunch of weights from relations and personality. Vengefulness, being a rival or nemesis, having been exposed for cheating on a spouse, being within the first couple of steps for succession to a higher tier title, basically intrigue education especially if they go skulduggery focus and/or get the perk "a job done right" are all specifically more likely to murder.
Basically any vengeful, dishonorable, deceitful, or greedy personalities are more likely to do bad stuff, especially if they don't like you and aren't terrified of you. Lazy looked like it was more middle of the road and neither more nor less likely to attempt murder in particular, but the other personality traits and relations will matter.
Ambitious definitely fits in with being more likely to try to murder you, so try to keep their opinion high and/or befriend them. Inbred is actually less likely to try it because they have less rationality, but rationality only matters if they're a landed duke or higher and I think a claimant.
I don't think weight has anything to do with it either from what I looked at.
You'd think an event like that would be like 1 in 100 or something,, but it plays out more like one in 5.
My latest game, my second born was a serial killer, 5 years into the game the serial killer events started. It happened that fast in another game, the other times it was my second gen.
This is actually the first time I've heard about such an event even existing.
Otherwise, the advice and info will definitely help prevent getting murdered in general.
"normal" murders do not trigger any special notifications, also serial killer bypass murder resistance from lovers and dynasty perk