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Then there is traits like just, honest, etc that affect success chance as also subject opinion of you and if they have spouse then also opinion of spouse.
That Roads of power major patch also reduced secrecy percentages on seduction and romance schemes so they are much harder to keep in hidden.
Success changes are calculated months early before event pops up so if you are save scumming, you reload the same failed attempt all over again and again.
They kinda broke the intrigue lifestyle a bit with the last major update (redid how schemes work if you're fairly new to the game) and even before then, it was a bit niche in terms of pure utility. Some starts could use it to great effect (the Jimenez heirs could murder their way to controlling half of Spain) but not very useful otherwise, more of an rp thing, and that was with the ability to have potentially 100s of agents helping out with schemes. The kidnapping scheme got nerfed aaaaaaaaages ago. When the game came out, you could use it to auto-win wars and the devs thought that was a bit much.
Learning's great by the by. My default build's a stewardship education with 50/50 stewardship (avaricious and architect trees) and learning perks (scholar and whole of body trees) plus a smattering of diplomacy for the kid stat boost and better opinion from gifts.
Really the 2 best trees are stewardship and learning, no other tree comes close to these 2 in effectiveness. Martial has some nice perks you can get really fast, and diplo has the various vassalization perks that are also good.
But intrigue, I just never find any reason to pick that because other trees are so much more useful to build a strong successful realm.
So far, so good.