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Every time someone challenges me, I always win. Every single time I challenge anyone else, I always lose. No exception.
In my experience, Sudden Deaths occur pretty often, so the Defender has a massive advantage.
Ja, if you are not wiping them in the rock/paper/scissors match there's no way you are going to win when you are the instigator.
Looking at their stats will give you an indication of how they might play/choose, or at least start with, but is no guarantee.
When you challenge someone you can respond to their first action, when you are challenged you start first which might allow them to counter you.
I think the event popup tells you what they did last round, as well as the outcome, and you just have to guess for the next round. If they telegraph it that would kinda make the match pointless.
Then either you have a mod or got lucky. I have no mod for it and only see the results. There is some flavor text before the first move, but it was 'pensive pout' and diplomacy should not be a draw for that... I think. There is a line at the end, which I have found to be just a reading of their last move, not the coming one. Sometimes they are repetitive with their choices, but sometimes not.
The flavor text changes depending on how they feel about you though. It also varies through stewardship for some games, making all 4 skills used (but only three at a time).
I just tried it again with your 'word strategy'. The first two rounds were a draw and I lost the next three... and the match. :)