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lol it certainly feels that way at times :) Just once I would like to make it through to the end of the game. Maybe I need the final part of the new dlc so I can play all 600 years as landless mercenaries wandering the realms lol
I did consider that a possibility though it does not explain the cause of me trying it and that is the five fails in a row with different events all having a 95% or 99% chance of success. Could just be bad luck but it grates a little still when it happens more often then not and certainly more than the percentage suggests.
Just another challenge to face in the game :)
50% chance tohit, miss 32 times in a row (my record). 95% to hit, missed 5 times in row (another record for me) 3% Crit chance, hit 3 times in a row, but it was the AI against me which rather sucked and made me rethink an entire strat to make ti through the mission. These are all things I've seen and RNG is not broken in any of them.
People see a % and think aggregate, when in reality it's not that at all they are all just single one shot's. There are very few games that have multiple styles of dice rollers but very few use that style dice roller. I saw a qoute from a dev that basically said, "humans are very bad at accurately perceiving RNG" Basically because when things are weighted towards them in a luck streak, they never notice because in their head 95% means always hit which is why the rage quit happens when they miss 3 in a row and think it's "rigged"
In this game there is also something else going on. the Rolls are made way before the event in almost all cases, so unless your going back many years your going to get the same outcome as it's loading the same numbers.
The simple fact, you can have 30% chance and fail 30 times in a row, and nothing is wrong with anything. It's just plain simple bad luck. Do that same test 100 times at 30 sample size each then chart the stats you will see vastly different swings. I did this recently with another game that people were convinced the game was cheating. I ended up abandoning the project after 25 missions as it was clear there was nothing wrong, as getting bad streaks just happens in modern computer RNG.
On last thing, Modern RNG is simulated, it's not true RNG. If anyone can actually code a true RNG, you will make billions as it's one of the holy grail's. Though honestly i'm not sure in large subsets you still won't see huge streaks swinging one way or another as that happens in billions of chances.
Good luck on your quest to finish a game though. Might i suggest playing smaller, lean into the failed chances and try to roll with it.
Anyway here is what I found. As mentioned results are made before things finally trigger only changing if there is something the game recognizes that changes the underlying variables. Spymasters provide an unknown amount of interference against any hostile scheme in their court unless recruited into it. Some events give a %, but another NPC is given a reaction event possibly resulting in failure. The game doesn't seem to be able to properly track how everyone's decisions effect group events skewing the results of hunts, archery tournaments, recital tournaments, and melee tournaments. All four of these things decrease success seemingly arbitrarily unless you know the hidden mechanics, and there is no hidden boon I know of so it is easy to get disgruntled.
In case the terminology I use is confusing I literally mean the game has to register the change of variables. As an easy example using cheats you can easily give your character 100 intrigue for a hostile scheme, but the game has to register your stat change for it to alter the values. Still using hostile schemes it is safe to say if you pick an event outcome which adds success chance even if it seems redundant that is a point where changes are registered, but you have to take a choice in an event that changes chance values.
You can save scum all day. You just don't save to same month as the event triggers, you save previous month's first day and go speed 5 brrr until you success.
There are some exceptions like first murder attempt always fails if your target/house has the intrigue level 5 dynasty trait (prevent one murder attempt).
Children's gender and traits are determined 7 days before the birth.
Then there are some seduction/tress events with contrite that are determined years before triggering (example lover revealing you as father of the bastard child keeping the secret something like 10 years and then triggering the reveal event). These cannot be save scummed they happen every time in same month and day.
These are indeed, fun times.
This is just plain evil...
I mean the game is unfair and hard enough as it is barely even playable, let alone enjoyable, for casual player and they go out of their way to make the playthrough miserable.
The game keeps a queue of numbers for its random rolls. So the next event will always use the same number from the queue, unless another event uses it up unexpectedly.
Example the queue is 17-51-03-22-(...)
You have a 20% chance to die in a given event choice. The game will always take the queued 17 which will always fail, because you needed to roll higher than 20.
If another event would randomly appear first after reloading your last savegame, it could use up the 17, leading on to 51 where the other event would always succeed.