High vs Low Percentage

[Revolunatic]

Does anyone else notice that the percentages of events can't be right ? Like right now i had a percentage from 82% to win and 18% to die. Guess what happened ? I died and closed the game after that. Also before in the same game i had a 97% chance to kill a whale and get 100 gold or 3% to loose 75 prestige. I lost the prestige.

Am i the only one and just unlucky or does this happen to anyone else too ? Because it's not like that this is a one time thing. It happens all the time and also in other Paradox games.

[jerrypocalypse]

Just unlucky

[DocFrog1789]

Usually, it's just perception bias. These situations tend to stick in your mind, and you are more invested in the results.
Statistically, you'd have to have A LOT more examples to make a reliable statement that something is wrong.

[Mo0on]

I have almost 1k hours in Ck3 and I will tell you the percentages have always lied.

[jerrypocalypse]

Originally posted by Crimson:

This is a post from another thread last month...

"PDX-Trinexx Officer 15 Apr @ 11:42am

Success/secrecy percentages don't account for your target's spymaster running interference or other related boons they have."



Its not that the success/failure percentages lie, its just that they DO NOT take some very pertinent information into the equation. At least according to a PDX Official

That's for stuff like schemes against specific characters. Events like the whale one mentioned in the OP are clear cut.

[turkey_pilot]

You really took an 11% chance to die?!?!??

Not too prudent.

I agree it is probably perception bias. You don't remember when the 60% of a gain worked for you...just when you roll bad.

I've got just a few hours in the game (CK3 3575.6...and more in CK2) so take my opion for what it's worth

[turkey_pilot]

Unless, of course, your heir was awesome and you wanted to move on....totally get that 😄

[VipreRX]

It's a natural human bias to think something is wrong.

Retrain your brain to only focus on the chance of failure because even with a 99% chance of success you can still fail 100 times in a row, it's just very very unlikely to happen.

A nearly 1 in 5 chance of death is not a risk one should be taking. If every time my neighbors left he house 2 of them died I'd think they were insane for leaving the house.

[GabWinter]

Something similar happened to me but trying to kill someone, I got 95% to kill that person and I failed XD
Not only has happened once... that´s the worst part

[The Former]

As someone who's played XCOM extensively... It's almost surely perception bias.

[Revolunatic]

I mean to be fair it's not only with the bad things that can happen. I also get sometimes good events with low percentages but it just comes to the point where i think that the lower percentage is the better one xD

[Kovs]

One thing that I've noticed with those % events, it's that the failure/success is/seems to be rigged at the moment your event pops up and has little to with everything else. I say this because when playing non-Ironman, saving and loading 10 times for a success, all those times I had the bad effects. Maybe I'm just very unlucky, too.

[jerrypocalypse]

Originally posted by Kovs:

One thing that I've noticed with those % events, it's that the failure/success is/seems to be rigged at the moment your event pops up and has little to with everything else. I say this because when playing non-Ironman, saving and loading 10 times for a success, all those times I had the bad effects. Maybe I'm just very unlucky, too.

The number seed for most things happens usually a month or two prior to an event popping up. So if you save/load immediately before the decision, the numbers are already seeded and the result won't change.

[Validuz]

Originally posted by Lockfågel, Paradoxriddaren:

As someone who's played XCOM extensively... It's almost surely perception bias.

[wing]

there's no way the 95% success chances of schemes are correct

[Abacus]

Well if it was binary, it wouldn't be random right?

You happens (by the logic of the game.) to be unlucky.

I have had rather varied results but usually get the higher percentage when they are so different.

But yeah, there may be another variable that is unseen dictating what your character "should" get, depending on any variables it considers.

You would have to look at the "low_percentage_chance" whatever it uses. As It won't specifically say if you find the event in the files. You'd have to look at that acorn: "low_percentage_chance" and what it actually does.