Event outcome stuck?

[prose]

I am trying to murder somebody on my feast. It is an intrigue challenge and I have a 57% of killing him and a 43% change of not doing so. My intrigue is 10 and his is 5. I have reloaded the game 12 times so far and I couldn't kill him yet. Am I just incredibly unlucky or am I missing something?

[Emperor2000]

Originally posted by prose:

I am trying to murder somebody on my feast. It is an intrigue challenge and I have a 57% of killing him and a 43% change of not doing so. My intrigue is 10 and his is 5. I have reloaded the game 12 times so far and I couldn't kill him yet. Am I just incredibly unlucky or am I missing something?

If you reload the Game with an open Event, the outcome will always the same, if you choose always the same Option.

[CrUsHeR]

Not sure about the exact case here, i only play Ironman to avoid reloading on poor RNG results. Though there generally are two reasons why a random result remains the same after savescumming:


A) The result is already determined earlier than it seems (e.g. a month or a year before you see the result) or blocked by a different mechanic (e.g. trying to romance a close relative with 100% always fails within a few days unless they have certain traits or hidden triggers)


B) The game draws numbers for random chances from a pre-rolled queue of numbers.

For example the current number queue is 27-81-52-98, then your event happens and it always picks the 27 because it is next in queue. So with a chance of 57%, 27 is too low and it always fails.

If another roll happened first, it would take up the first number and you get the next one for your event. In this case 81 would be enough to beat the 57% chance, so it would always succeed.

In some games this can be easily played around, like in TW:Warhammer if a specific hero action fails once, it will always fail after reloading; though you can simply do a different action with another hero first.

In CK3 this could be more difficult depending on how old the savegame is, due to things happening in realtime all over the world. Then again i don't know if CK3 actually uses this system, and if it uses the same number queue for everything.