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I've been playing with them being rarer (i forget the precise name for the level), and I still get the foreshadowing at least once a life, - always the same event too (falling off horse) but can usually avoid the actual event by taking the stress option
I'm playing 1.8.2 Elder Kings so I don't have to deal with the developers, since I guess they think this is fine? Since its been like this for awhile now and no hotfixes. Doesn't surprise me they don't play their own game.
Perhaps genetics do play a cause in the background. Kind of like how the game seem to force a certain trait outcome on certain characters.
The frequency of these events is adjustable in the game rules, so we don't see a need to hotfix anything here. If it's happening too often for your liking, you're free to dial it down.
If not is there something else what influences it besides the dice roll when getting older?
(Edit:spelling)
I respectfully disagree. The default setting triggers the events so much you can't take it seriously. Just my opinion: "Illusion of safety" would be a far better default.