Event Percentages WAYYYYY Off

[Ringo Mandingo]

So I keep getting this event where I am in the bathtub and see the devil, which makes my character slip and he becomes incapable...The event says there is a 20% chance that my character will be ok. Well, after 100 reloads of the game, ALL of them failed. The percentages in this game are BS.

[Black_Rat]

The seed is rolled months before the event is triggered. You would need to go back to a save that happened before the seed was rolled.

[SDxEair]

The game saves RNG seeds into the savefile. Its not perfect. Save and reload will often get different results over time, but any event that has already been triggered has the seed saved in it and will get the same result if you save while the event is up and reload.

[Ringo Mandingo]

not going to lie, my butthole kinda hurts on this.

[SDxEair]

An event can also be triggered with a delay, and the seed is saved when its initially created, not when the event shows on screen after the delay. Most events don't have super long delays, but there are a few. Its possible these new harm events have long delays and would require going back real far to avoid.

[Dibago]

I had that event happening to me, even made a post about it.
while what was said here about some events being decided months before (so you would have to reload earlier) what i found out with my post (and a few tests) is that this isnt one of those cases.
That is part of a serie of events that were added relatively recent where your character might have a chance of having an accident that may kill or injury him/her, and it is set from the beginning. In other words, your character is flagged and will have it happen no matter what.
In my case, it happen about 7 years into the campaign, after many reloads (from a few months earlier to a couple years) i decided to reload from the start and replay those 7 years again, and at the exact same date, it still happened.
Basically your rulers is already pre-determined to have that accident.

After some advice in here, i end up starting over and changed the settings. There is an option about harmful events (i dont remember the exact name but it is easy to spot) and turned it to the "safe" option. Some people told me that this option wont eliminate those events from the game, but will make it harmless. Since i did this i havent seen any event of those again tho, so i dont know if it is just luck or it actually completely removed them. But even if they are not removed, as long as this makes them harmless is already way better imo.

[SDxEair]

Just looked at the code for the harm events to be sure. As I suspected based on their explaination, the harmful event is added, with a huge delay(a random number of years) when you get the foreboding event for it. So the only way to get different results would be to load a save before the foreboding event.

[Dubya]

Originally posted by The Coal River Cuckler:

not going to lie, my butthole kinda hurts on this.

just remove the stats with console or edit the save.

[Novia]

Originally posted by Dibago:

I
After some advice in here, i end up starting over and changed the settings. There is an option about harmful events (i dont remember the exact name but it is easy to spot) and turned it to the "safe" option. Some people told me that this option wont eliminate those events from the game, but will make it harmless.

You can also just set it so only the AI gets them instead (never off though). Honestly recommend that to people who want the fate of their characters to be decided by things they directly interact with normally, rather than deal with RNG every month.

[Elriadon]

If you want to avoid the second harm event, then it's as easy as ensuring that you are travelling on the day when it's supposed to trigger. It always triggers on the specific day generated together with the success chance, so once you know it, just reload and then go on a Hunt or Pilgrimage the day before. The event won't trigger then and it won't repeat later.

[Poltergeist]

Originally posted by Eltar:

If you want to avoid the second harm event, then it's as easy as ensuring that you are travelling on the day when it's supposed to trigger. It always triggers on the specific day generated together with the success chance, so once you know it, just reload and then go on a Hunt or Pilgrimage the day before. The event won't trigger then and it won't repeat later.

Yep. Another way I avoid the harm event is to make my king/emperor/etc the leader of a standing army for a few months. Works well so far. :)