Is the "Melee" just stupid RNG?

[Kiethoo]

80% chance to win...
My 8 Knights are all over 30 Prowess.
2 of them are over 50, and Acclaimed.
4 are Blademasters....
6 of them have exp with Foot Combat.

Last part of the Melee event....I lose....the ♥♥♥♥...the guy I lost too Knight's are a joke....his champion has 12 prowess and is Craven....another one has 1 freaking arm....and 1 eye...
Seriously this RNG ♥♥♥♥ is really pissing me off. Between this crap and the Ward RNG Trait crap I dunno why I play this game.

[Ploof Ploof]

Well... technicaly... technicaly everything in this game is RNG...

[SunflowerFollower]

God was not on your side that day? Your guys got cocky and completely underestimated the competition? Or maybe just maybe one or two of them bet a lot of money on the other side winning?!? But yeah all kidding aside, i guess they have it that way since otherwise human players (esp once they become king/emperor) would probably win every time if it were based solely on merit and that'd get boring fast.

On second thought though, i don't know how much of a difference the pre-contest stuff makes. Such as visiting the temple and praying for victory; sabotaging the other competitors by going to the tent area and creating mischief; practicing in the arena, etc. It could be the ruler of the winning side did one or more of those things which greatly improved their chances of winning and at the same time maybe you didn't do any of that.

[Talist]

I mean, 80% chance to win is a 20% chance to lose. Out of all the events, the melee is the most swingy and random because rather than being one character's skill set, it's an average of a bunch of them. It also seems to be more weighted towards 50/50 than the other events.

[ChaosKhan]

Melee is the most "RNG" event you can have and you can't even accuse the opponents of cheating.

[IAmKEVIN]

I have failed 3 95% murder scheme on a same person back to back just now... So I guess I kinda feel you? Lol

[Black_Rat]

Originally posted by IAmKEVIN:

I have failed 3 95% murder scheme on a same person back to back just now... So I guess I kinda feel you? Lol

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

[PDX-Trinexx]

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

Originally posted by IAmKEVIN:

I have failed 3 95% murder scheme on a same person back to back just now... So I guess I kinda feel you? Lol

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

That also doesn't take into account any counters due to your target's spymaster.

[Mepho]

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

Originally posted by IAmKEVIN:

I have failed 3 95% murder scheme on a same person back to back just now... So I guess I kinda feel you? Lol

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

In my experience this isn't true. It looks like the dice is rolled the moment the prompt "go ahead / not now" pops or rather a few days before.
I savescummed 90% fails many many times and I always used the latest autosave unless the event happened in the first days of the month (like 3 or 5), in which case I just used the one before (I have autosaves set per month and it keeps 2 automatically, or even 3?).
Most were murders that went through but got me discovered, no idea if there's a difference there but doesn't seem like it.

As per tournaments yes, the RNG seems very significant. Just a few days ago I savescummed because a knight of mine broke my neck in a 82% chance (to my favor) match.
I was 19 and just started, so i loaded and had him forcibly forfeit.
Next fight was a giant dude with something stupid like 40 or 50 prowess and I won no sweat.
Also Archery seems to dislike me as I lost twice or thrice with super high % at the last moment.

Personally I like the idea of randomness in a match, it makes little sense for a guy with 20 prowess to win against one with 50 in a duel, but I get the chance in reality is always there and this tries to simulate it.

It's the schemes that rub me the wrong way because you can mathematically add chances way over the 90% cap and I think it makes sense to reach certainty at that point. If most of the targets acquaintances are complicit I think there should be a guarantee. Maybe assure the kill but make it still discoverable, but an army of agents should ultimately amount to something.
I don't know, seeing 3 agents 90% and 2 months later 9 agents still 90% just rubs the wrong way, so as I said I feel often justified in savescumming them.

I understand such a thing might create issues for AI schemes, but I see most mechanics are distinct between player and AI anyway, even so it doesn't particularly hard to balance since as a player you're already supposed to be counteracting these schemes and having a 90% or 100% murder scheme on you doesn't change that much in terms of gameplay (you're gonna react the same exact way).


[edit]
I do use a bunch of mods, but I don't think anything that might interfere with the RNG or schemes. The closest thing might be "Fix truth is relative".

[Black_Rat]

Originally posted by Mepho:

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

In my experience this isn't true. It looks like the dice is rolled the moment the prompt "go ahead / not now" pops or rather a few days before.
I savescummed 90% fails many many times and I always used the latest autosave unless the event happened in the first days of the month (like 3 or 5), in which case I just used the one before (I have autosaves set per month and it keeps 2 automatically, or even 3?).
Most were murders that went through but got me discovered, no idea if there's a difference there but doesn't seem like it.

As per tournaments yes, the RNG seems very significant. Just a few days ago I savescummed because a knight of mine broke my neck in a 82% chance (to my favor) match.
I was 19 and just started, so i loaded and had him forcibly forfeit.
Next fight was a giant dude with something stupid like 40 or 50 prowess and I won no sweat.
Also Archery seems to dislike me as I lost twice or thrice with super high % at the last moment.

Personally I like the idea of randomness in a match, it makes little sense for a guy with 20 prowess to win against one with 50 in a duel, but I get the chance in reality is always there and this tries to simulate it.

It's the schemes that rub me the wrong way because you can mathematically add chances way over the 90% cap and I think it makes sense to reach certainty at that point. If most of the targets acquaintances are complicit I think there should be a guarantee. Maybe assure the kill but make it still discoverable, but an army of agents should ultimately amount to something.
I don't know, seeing 3 agents 90% and 2 months later 9 agents still 90% just rubs the wrong way, so as I said I feel often justified in savescumming them.

I understand such a thing might create issues for AI schemes, but I see most mechanics are distinct between player and AI anyway, even so it doesn't particularly hard to balance since as a player you're already supposed to be counteracting these schemes and having a 90% or 100% murder scheme on you doesn't change that much in terms of gameplay (you're gonna react the same exact way).


[edit]
I do use a bunch of mods, but I don't think anything that might interfere with the RNG or schemes. The closest thing might be "Fix truth is relative".

That is how the game engine works... It only matters if the game has saved after the seed has been determined, which doesnt always happen, but often does. See the dev agreeing with me and adding additional context.

[IAmKEVIN]

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

Originally posted by IAmKEVIN:

I have failed 3 95% murder scheme on a same person back to back just now... So I guess I kinda feel you? Lol

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

Damn I did not know that, thanks for sharing!

[Mepho]

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

Originally posted by Mepho:

In my experience this isn't true. It looks like the dice is rolled the moment the prompt "go ahead / not now" pops or rather a few days before.
I savescummed 90% fails many many times and I always used the latest autosave unless the event happened in the first days of the month (like 3 or 5), in which case I just used the one before (I have autosaves set per month and it keeps 2 automatically, or even 3?).
Most were murders that went through but got me discovered, no idea if there's a difference there but doesn't seem like it.
[...]

You just don't need to go back several months. You can use the latest autosave at worst the second if on monthly. I suppose if you could time a manual save just right you could do so something like just a week before the prompt, but the prompt itself can be randomly delayed from what I've seen.

This has been coherent for my whole playtime, even back on the xbox gamepass version, it's not based on just a few occurrencies so I'm pretty certain of what I'm saying.

[edit]
Btw I just won an archery contest and a horse race at the same tournament both with 16% (or 12? less than 20 anyway). Funny coincidence.

[jpcerutti]

Originally posted by Mepho:

Originally posted by Black_Rat:

the result for the murder scheme gets determined before the event triggers, you would have to go back several months to get the seed to change.

Originally posted by Mepho:

In my experience this isn't true. It looks like the dice is rolled the moment the prompt "go ahead / not now" pops or rather a few days before.
I savescummed 90% fails many many times and I always used the latest autosave unless the event happened in the first days of the month (like 3 or 5), in which case I just used the one before (I have autosaves set per month and it keeps 2 automatically, or even 3?).
Most were murders that went through but got me discovered, no idea if there's a difference there but doesn't seem like it.
[...]

You just don't need to go back several months. You can use the latest autosave at worst the second if on monthly. I suppose if you could time a manual save just right you could do so something like just a week before the prompt, but the prompt itself can be randomly delayed from what I've seen.

This has been coherent for my whole playtime, even back on the xbox gamepass version, it's not based on just a few occurrencies so I'm pretty certain of what I'm saying.

[edit]
Btw I just won an archery contest and a horse race at the same tournament both with 16% (or 12? less than 20 anyway). Funny coincidence.

I win a LOT of archery tournaments at less than 20% and come home empty handed from a LOT of 80% hunts. I treat the percentages as "suggestions". :)