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It seems that it is the same Mechanic as the Duels and so there are a lot of temporary Modifiers around and I have the impression that there is something like a Scissor, Paper, Stone Game around with Martial, Intrigue, Learning ... would suggest it is more of a Gambling Game - but do not quote me on anything ;)
Example: if you choose your intrigue value, it is compared with the opponent's intrigue value and the one with the highest intrigue value has more chances of winning.
It usually works that way, but with chess each of your stats is checked against another stat. If you use the intrigue option, it is checked against your enemy's learning. If you hover your mouse over the dialogue options it says which stat is used at the top.
If you're seeing 'foil' show up in the description, that means you're successfully countering your opponent, whereas if you see 'counter' in the description, that means your opponent is countering you.
Haven't lost a game yet, but I'm also only like 5-6 games of chess played over three characters.
If both characters have low stats every match ends in default because neither character can win enough points even if they counter all 4 rounds, so the defender wins.
Otherwise using dialogue context clues you counter what you think the opponent is doing based on what they say on the bottom paragraph. The next screens tells you if you countered them or not.
I think it's also a diceroll on stat odds, and possibly how much chess your char has played?
TBH I found the whole thing quite convoluted and unfun. I was encouraged to simply skip through dialogue cycling 2 options at random until my character's stats were ~12+ on two of the three and expecting to lose by default otherwise.
Why hide the outcome % for options when all other game dialogue works that way. Duels at least tell you "Chance of injury, Chance of Success" etc. It's dumb give the player better feedback.
I pretty much end up winning most of my games.
Once I tried actually reading and selecting option and it seems like there are some clues here and there to help you counter them and win but it just didn't seem worth the time for me after the 18th game lol
On a serious note.
It is all about stats (paper, scissor, rock) a long with some RNG.
I mean, yeah, your chance of survival is almost zero, but when it happens you have already died, instead of just getting a death screen you get that event with a chance to survive death, if you play the right way and/or have the necessary traits.