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So here are some random guesses what you might be able to do if the situation allows it:
1) become a vasal of someone. Either bayern or someone thats stronger than them.
2) Arrange marriages. Call in those allies to the war.
3) Hire mercenaries if you have enough gold
4) Avoid fighting bayern head on and just try to capture some cities and sue for white peace if you can get to +30 war score
5) actually marry someone to bayern to make them allies.
6) murder the king before he can attack you
Let the AI move on to the next fort and siege back the first one (which you can take faster because the garrison is depleted). Make sure to not get caught while in a siege because you will be treated as the attacker (sometimes, depending on proximity you need to let 2 forts fall before you can siege back without being challenged). When the AI army starts melting because supplies are gone you can go in for the kill. Always attack when an enemy is in a siege. When you have beaten the AI army you can usually white peace out or go for the turnaround if your economy allows for it.