Schemes always discovered

[Changrot]

It seems to me that the scheming mechanic is somehow broken? I have a ruler with 24 Intrigue, my Spymaster has 17 and every schemes i tried got discovered. Even with a 95% success rate and a 90% secrecy! I tried scheming against my liege who has a spymaster with 7 intrigue, and got discovered anyway. Either i'm misunderstanding the whole mecanics or somethings wrong with it?

[|r.τ.α| Tiyanki]

accept RNGesus as your lord and savior and your games saved from bad rolls for all eternity

[Rialm]

Yeah I also don't understand very well.
I even imagined that it was somehow related with the speed, so I tried to not rush: it speed lower than 3 the last month of the scheme. I'm pretty sure it's just a placebo.
edit: I even remember testing it when I played no-ironman.

[Changrot]

Honestly, i don't think it's only related to RNG. The problem is systemic to point where i think it's worthless playing an intrigue oriented ruler. it's like 9 outta 10 schemes being discovered even with strong stats and completed perks branch in Skulduggery.

[Juicy Beefcake]

This isn't necessarily just a 5% dice roll.
So, I suspect what happens here is this:
If someone in the target's court joins your scheme, then drops below the necessary approval rating with you to want to participate, they will flip on you and rat you out. Also I assume enemy rulers can torture or coerce secrets out of people just like you can. When you invite people to your schemes, make sure their approval of the proposal is >10 and bribed people tend to be the least reliable (the bribe approval ticks down steadily with time).

[Jackochainsaw]

Intrigue is dangerous if you have too many agents. Normally the person you are trying to kill or the spymaster above them has a much larger chance of finding a duplicitous scoundrel if there are many scoundrels to choose from. Playing with a high intrigue character does help, as does having a really high level spymaster and a high level wife to aid you in intrigue. Having the intrigue dynasty legacies also really helps out. Having the Duchy building helps (leisure palace). You should avoid schemes where you need too many compliant agents (through bribing), also be wary of schemes where too many people join in (unless the target is a child).

I find with pretty much everything in CK3 that most attempts are futile below 45% for most interactions but you can risk it for a biscuit. Risking it with assassination is the worst risk.

Now, a plot can be detected and as long as you have enough agents to get the 95% success chance I'd say carry on. It's only when you are actually fingered for the crime that it's a problem. Don't panic straight away. Sometimes the plot is still in action, and still good to go but there is a likelihood that you'll be revealed, but if you get the job done, problem solved. There is a good chance that one of your annoying vassals or just a plain git from outside the realm, will find out that you did this murdering anyway. And if it was an enemy, don't accept the bribe and take the murderer trait if you don't want that hook to be exploited by every man, woman and dog.

Even with a low level spymaster defending against plots, it's the liege who will add extra weight with their own intrigue score. There are also these status buffs that can be acquired through random events that only the liege carries, not the spymaster/mistress. There are also some nasty traits to watch out for. I learnt this by accident, epic fail. Temujin (the mighty Khan) has a mega OP trait that (along with many other insane stat boosts) debuffs success chance against him. I wasted about 500 gold on trying to kill him and was discovered in about 3 months with a decent level spymaster, and average level regent who had a few useful intrigue skills in the intrigue tree.

There has been some balance to make intrigue harder, because there were many exploits that received the nerf bat such as the North Korean strategy for abduction during war (and I must admit, I used that a few times). It may be a little too punitive perhaps but in my opinion I think that intrigue should improve based on successful operations. So, either your spymaster or you as the leader, gain traits a bit like an equivalent "berserker" where after so many successful kills you get an easier time, and then get an equivalent "viking" style trait for 20+ assassinations. Just a thought. Also I think that you should be able to improve your chances of a successful assassination/kidnapping/seduction based on your past attempts, getting a "lay of the land" bonus (for the seduction aspect, pardon my analogy on that last bonus).

TL:DR
RNG BS
Too many cooks in the kitchen, means too many cooks for the inspector to find traces of salmonella on.
Intrigue weighted more towards liege than spymaster alone.
Target's traits (e.g. paranoid, khan of khans), dynasty perks (from intrigue legacy) and status perks (extra observant) might count against success.
Don't attempt below 65% success chance. 45% is normally a straight fail unless you can bribe a top member of the target's court who has high success and time reduction.
Operation not necessarily blown when plot made visible. Only a problem when the plot fails.
Major implications of failing an attempt > imprisonment if target was liege > murderer, kinslayer or dynastic kinslayer trait > huge negative rep from target and family of target which can generate rivals > loss of piety level > attempt cooldown of 10 years.

[The Former]

Originally posted by poob:

accept RNGesus as your lord and savior and your games saved from bad rolls for all eternity

Sigh.

[Changrot]

Originally posted by Jackochainsaw:

Intrigue is dangerous if you have too many agents. Normally the person you are trying to kill or the spymaster above them has a much larger chance of finding a duplicitous scoundrel if there are many scoundrels to choose from. Playing with a high intrigue character does help, as does having a really high level spymaster and a high level wife to aid you in intrigue. Having the intrigue dynasty legacies also really helps out. Having the Duchy building helps (leisure palace). You should avoid schemes where you need too many compliant agents (through bribing), also be wary of schemes where too many people join in (unless the target is a child).

I find with pretty much everything in CK3 that most attempts are futile below 45% for most interactions but you can risk it for a biscuit. Risking it with assassination is the worst risk.

Now, a plot can be detected and as long as you have enough agents to get the 95% success chance I'd say carry on. It's only when you are actually fingered for the crime that it's a problem. Don't panic straight away. Sometimes the plot is still in action, and still good to go but there is a likelihood that you'll be revealed, but if you get the job done, problem solved. There is a good chance that one of your annoying vassals or just a plain git from outside the realm, will find out that you did this murdering anyway. And if it was an enemy, don't accept the bribe and take the murderer trait if you don't want that hook to be exploited by every man, woman and dog.

Even with a low level spymaster defending against plots, it's the liege who will add extra weight with their own intrigue score. There are also these status buffs that can be acquired through random events that only the liege carries, not the spymaster/mistress. There are also some nasty traits to watch out for. I learnt this by accident, epic fail. Temujin (the mighty Khan) has a mega OP trait that (along with many other insane stat boosts) debuffs success chance against him. I wasted about 500 gold on trying to kill him and was discovered in about 3 months with a decent level spymaster, and average level regent who had a few useful intrigue skills in the intrigue tree.

There has been some balance to make intrigue harder, because there were many exploits that received the nerf bat such as the North Korean strategy for abduction during war (and I must admit, I used that a few times). It may be a little too punitive perhaps but in my opinion I think that intrigue should improve based on successful operations. So, either your spymaster or you as the leader, gain traits a bit like an equivalent "berserker" where after so many successful kills you get an easier time, and then get an equivalent "viking" style trait for 20+ assassinations. Just a thought. Also I think that you should be able to improve your chances of a successful assassination/kidnapping/seduction based on your past attempts, getting a "lay of the land" bonus (for the seduction aspect, pardon my analogy on that last bonus).

TL:DR
RNG BS
Too many cooks in the kitchen, means too many cooks for the inspector to find traces of salmonella on.
Intrigue weighted more towards liege than spymaster alone.
Target's traits (e.g. paranoid, khan of khans), dynasty perks (from intrigue legacy) and status perks (extra observant) might count against success.
Don't attempt below 65% success chance. 45% is normally a straight fail unless you can bribe a top member of the target's court who has high success and time reduction.
Operation not necessarily blown when plot made visible. Only a problem when the plot fails.
Major implications of failing an attempt > imprisonment if target was liege > murderer, kinslayer or dynastic kinslayer trait > huge negative rep from target and family of target which can generate rivals > loss of piety level > attempt cooldown of 10 years.

Thanks for the détaillés comment! Still, i dont hey the fact that with 90/100 chance of secrecy, i get discovered almost at every schème attempt?