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This is all about recon level. You can see what your current recon level is on the combat encounter screen before you pull the trigger. If it's low expect more resistance than the game is currently telling you.
The two units you can use to significantly improve recon early game are buggies and motorcycle units. It is well worth building a few of these and assign them to your regular infantry brigades. You will find your recon levels go through the roof if you do that.
Note also that recon level is a combat modifier as well as a fog of war mechanic. Enemies are much easier to kill if you know exactly where they are. Therefore buggies and motorcycles not only tell you more accurately exactly what you are facing up against they also enable your regular troops to kill the more effectively. Much more effectively.
You need 400 recon to fully see a hex and even then there are other factors that the game takes into account. Unfortunately the only way to really get a grip on the real estimate is to know the game quite well.
But before that, build recon units as already stated.
Also, the combat game isn't just about winning each battle outright like some other games. Sometimes it's about cutting their supply lines while keeping your own open. Or it can be cutting off a unit so it has no adjacent friendly territory, then forcing a retreat is just as good as obliterating it outright.