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Every time you buy a game full price you know that it will be (much) cheaper at some point. I never mind that myself.
Price perception, quality perception, brand loyalty, the customers wallet.....
What you are suggesting/implying is more "sunk cost". The op is approaching it from a more opportunity cost and future risk/cost/benefit analysis.
What does this mean?
I really have no idea what's the purpose of this thread aside of maybe thinly veiled ad for people to go out and look for the keys that are this cheap.
In their better days CIV was the 10 most played game two years ago (In Steam). Humankind never get more than 90K players in the same time, when CIV make and destroy varius records historic for 4X Strategy.
So, no, this pale imitation of CIV is nothing to compare, CIV III make ironically better random mapas twenty years ago that this game. And dont was a game based in procedural generation.
Humankind can be four years ago a ``potencial´´ new welcomer, but never get a underdog position or some similar.
This game have so many problems who are infexables, like broken factions who ignore the rules of the game, ♥♥♥♥♥♥ ia spam and basically 90% of mechanic are uselles and in the best cases negative for your own empire but never for the IA.
And dont make me talk about the snowball. I think this game (Humankind) have the more agresive and stupid snowball i see not only in strategy games (Age of Empires and Halo Wars are famous for their snowballs) if entire games (I see rng roguelikes more with more justice and equilibrium that this thing, hell, magic rng jesus or darkest dungeon are more fair than Humankind).
So no, this is a complete fail project, all the matchs are the same. Spam military units, spam production and spam science investigation. When you get enough stars, your production in the next era is not double or triple, no, is a literal thousand times better than the last era, the difference between Ancient Age and Medieval are so abismal, who you can said ``GG´´ in the moment you get Pikemans. The rest is history.
If that is not enough exist Broken civilizations like the Huns, Minoics, Maya, Persians and Japanese who literal washed the rest of civilizations of the game.
The rest of civilizations are basically trash compare to them, but the most funny, exist too many units, who can literal broken the game, like the gesatas (who never lose force for casualtys) spam with Celtics, The Maories with their anti-fortificatiosn infantery units and the Spanish Conqueror who created more aditional money for unit who kill and basically help you to spam more conquerors over and over again.
And the modern and contemporanean base units are so broken who literally dont care the emblematics units, with Conscripts you can just wash the map of your enemys, if they are still in Modern Era.