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Then again, maybe the Occam's Razor method means it is what it appears to be on the surface (though there are so many things in BG3 where the OR path leads to the wrong conclusion).
Who's to say what will happen going forward? Maybe the story will change in the future for who Balduran is. There's wiggle room for it. If there's enough disappointment, you can bet there'll be another retcon with an excuse why it's not another retcon but a correction.
As for me, I don't know enough about Balduran to know what happened with that character. (...and I've yet to get the related quest line even after saving certain people.)
We always argue about the unknowable. AI won't make the unknowable knowable either. We gotta get from here to there. And there ain't no path.
But, yeah, they retconned Balduran. No and's, if's, or but's.
IMHO, Larian saw an opening in Tales of the Sword Coast, the BG1 expansion. It leaves things open ended. You find Balduran's ship wreck. And some people tell you he died, became a werewolf, or sided with the werewolves, but the bottom line is his fate is described as unknown. This is the room for their retcon. They say he survived the shipwreck, made it off the island (though they don't say how), and ... well the Emperor tells you the rest of the story.
This creates a timeline problem they can only solve by making Balduran an elf, even though the character's creator, Ed Greenwood, and all the original lore says he was human.
I agree the Emperor lies constantly, and might also be lying about being Balduran. The weird thing is Ansur confirms it. But, dunno, could be being an undead lich-dragon for a long period of time leads to confusion.
What I find odd is it's really inconsequential to the story they do this. My view of the Emperor does not change even when I find out he is Balduran. Even if he was, that part of him is long gone. He is now the manipulative douchebag that he admits to be. I wonder if - as happens in most of my endings - folks will take down the statues of Balduran when they find out the founder of the city sided with the giant brain trying to destroy it.
The arguments are relevant. But how important? It's like a social science, Orion Invictus. Let's go with consensus.
By the way, and I mean no disrespect cuz you're smart, I see your avatar like a lil rubber ducky.
And yeah, I can see that.
When you meet the dragon-thing and talk with him, he mentions that they were more than friends with Balduran. Very important lore, super rich, exquisitely written story.
One can imagine...