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So the way portent dice work is as follows: after a long rest, you roll two D20. You save these results until the next long rest. Whenever a D20 is rolled (attacks, skill tests etc), you can choose to replace that die roll with one of your portent rolls.
Let's say you roll a 18 and a 3 in your portent die roll. So in your example, Karlach attacks an enemy, but rolls a 15 - she wouldn't hit, as the AC is 17 (requiring a roll of 17 or higher). Luckily, in one of your portent dice you have rolled a 18 - so you could choose to replace Karlach's roll, thus making it an 18, which would result in her hitting the enemy. After replacing the roll, your 18 is discarded.
If you replace her roll with your portent die of 3, the result is lower then the required AC of 17, resulting in a miss - so replacing the original die roll would not be recommended. It would be a great roll though if the enemy rolls for attack, or a save - you can replace their dice too, so they miss or fail their saves.
You have it all wrong. As a divination wizard let me explain to you and OP.
The pop up shows the total. Including modifiers, of the original roll that missed. Your girl rolled 15. TOTAL. Including modifiers. You can hover your mouse over her roll to see the actual die rolls.
The portent die of 11 is the actual d20. Then you need to add in modifiers on top of that 11. So that beats out the original total of 15 because the new attack roll for her was 11+str+prof.
It's likely Karlach rolled something like an 8 or 9 give or take on her d20 without modifiers.
It's supposed to, that's the point of them. You get a set number of portent die per day to influence a roll (or an enemies saving throw, to make them fail it). If you see the pop up, generally the portent die is in your favor. You just need to decide if you want to spend it then or hold onto it.
Portent die are your divination wizards way of changing fate. I do feel the UI is a bit misleading on it because it shows the total roll of the trigger including modifiers (ability and prof) as well as the d20. Just remember when it shows what the total rolled was, it's not saying Karlach rolled a 15 on a d20, it's showing her total attack roll to include her modifiers, was a 15.
You'll need to inspect where it shows her roll to see the actual d20 of the triggering roll, but as far as I know, the portent die screen doesn't seem to pop up if the portent die isn't better than the triggering roll.
At least it hasn't happened for me yet. So you should be good to pick it if it comes up.