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The chance of a 30% discount before Christmas is slim, 50% is non-existent.
If you're looking for similar that's cheaper, there are tons of options! Just avoid the new releases. Witcher 3: Wild Hunt is one of the greatest RPGs in history, and it's only $12.50 right now on GOG: https://www.gog.com/en/game/the_witcher_3_wild_hunt_game_of_the_year_edition
You will see no significant sale price reductions on this game for at least another year or two. Even then, 35% is probably the best you can hope for.
The game is so good that it sells well at full price. Larian has no reason to discount it. I mean, it's a single player game from over a year ago that regularly gets well over 70,000+ players a day.
There are live service games that envy Larian's player count.
I have Witcher 3 already, of course, but thanks for the tip. I prefer to have all my games in one place, though, so it will have to be on Steam. Not fair to the competition, I know, but just a preference. I tend to forget about games I buy elsewhere
I'll wait for the next sale, then!
usually a game hits the huge discounts when the sequel comes out, but this game will never get a sequel and if it does it wont be the same studio. And if it *does* itll be 10 years down the line.
Regarding free to play, I did play the game Anno 1800 for free during a 'free weekend' event here on Steam about a year ago, but like you say, that was several years after it was released.