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It won't be. And I would not get your hopes up for it to be 50% off next year's summer sale.
Just buy it already. It's a awesome game. I have 1500+ hrs in the game. Well worth the full price.
A testable prediction. Drop by next summer for your "I told you so" points.
Games go on sale at 50% off when their publisher decides that that's the optimal price-to-sales ratio. That may be within months, it may take years, or it may never happen. There are no secret Steam developer terms that mandate a sale, ever, and certainly not a specific discount at a specific sales threshold.
Prepare to be disappointed.
Because Publishers are given advance notice and tend to want to opt into big sales like that. Why do you think that's so hard to believe?
Effectively, and literally dead companies opt into sales? Again this isn't a point that needs to be argued