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Maybe, maybe not, it really depends on what extent some things they said about access to scripting are going to apply.
https://baldursgate3.game/news/community-update-27-official-modding-support_118
With the official Baldur's Gate 3 modding tools, you'll have what you need to add new weapons and armor, create new classes and subclasses, design new powerful spells, customise your game dice skins, and share your mods with a community of creators.
[snip]
While some NSFW mods and certain script-heavy modifications may not be supported through the official pipeline, modding outside of our pipeline will still be an option.
For cross-platform support, direct level editing and changes to core game elements (like story, cinematics, dialogues, quests, and local gameplay adjustments) can’t be facilitated due to technical constraints and platform-specific guidelines.
[snip]
we will release a subset of our internal development tools as part of the Baldur’s Gate 3 Toolkit. This will let you:
[snip]
Load levels read-only to look at all the local entities, as well as the setup, and test your mods in-game while creating them.
Get access to our internal editors for supported asset types such as textures and visual models, allowing you to override them directly in your mod through the developer interface.
[snip]
Mod UIs through file editing. We will provide documentation that will explain how our internals are set up to solve mod loading/compatibility issues.
[snip][end]
OK, again let's parse.
You can ALREADY create mods for new spells, classes, races, weapons, etc. as they are already at Nexus. That said, the tools may be able to get more of these kinds of mods made, probably as they will make it easier to do. That's good.
I'm the least excited about dice skins. I think there's already 300 of those at Nexus. But whatevs.
"No NSFW". Cool. I figured as much. You can probably still continue to use BG3 Sex Framework, they just are not going to officially support it. Heck, Larian support probably just does not want to deal with what could go wrong with that mod. LOL.
I'm getting a bit lost on what they are saying about scripting. But if I understand this correctly, they WILL open up more of the scripting APIs to access, they're still debating to what extent, but apparently anything that messes with scripting too excessively will not get official support.
The "core stuff" is going to be off limits to the tools. Apparently, this will indeed include dialogue. On the other hand, people are ALREADY modifying dialogue with Nexus mods. They will find a way anyway. However, they will apparently facilitate UI mods, which I believe would include the camera, inventory, movement controls, etc.
You will be able to read only look at the assets on levels. Just not modify them. But to what extent you will be able to modify visual assets, models, and textures ... that could determine what kind of new race mods might be possible, for example.
Plus Larian have contract restraints with wizards of the coast which impact on what can be modded.
Ive pretty much just written off even thinking about mods for more content. Just forget them
This ^ sadly.
If it had a big tool kit like Neverwinter nights did the possibilities would be near endless.
People are still making modules for that game even today after 20+ years.
You might want to give a look at "once lost games"
A bunch of the old school devs that worked on elder scrolls 2, 3 & 4 got together with a bunch of the Old devs from obsidian who are no longer at that company.
Their game when it releases early next year is supposed to be a spiritual successor to elder scrolls 2, dagger fall and a few of obsidians older open world games.
From what I have seen the progress on their next game looks amazing and they said after release they will be releasing the full toolkit.
There are a few mods already that do this at Nexus, so the answer is yes, people are already doing it. (Though these mods do require script extender, again, my usual pet peeve.)
Valkrana's Undead Encounters
https://www.nexusmods.com/baldursgate3/mods/9024
So again, I guess I put out there, if people are already doing it, I expect they'll be able to do it better and more once the tools are released.
Stuff wont be happening to this game besides what mods might do.
Probably the same way the IP holder moved on from Larian, Larian might move on from this.
Which is a sound business strategy. Even without any relation with the game, if I was someone at Larian, I would take the loss and go back to owned IPs and practice what was learned.
I dont really dig BG3 as the "stratospheric" success some people think it is, but still think if they used what they learned on BG3 to make a decent game with their own IP, they could build it up without worrying about IP holders, which kinda looks like the main objective all along, as the DnD stamp might have served to boost some stuff even if the actual IP is not really staying.
But I do think eventually this would make their IP something which would evolve into something more broadly enjoyed.
While some people might like DOS and the way it is, a whole lot of people prefer the less "board game" BG3 to the very much Turn Based rigid style of DOS.
Way more? I was involved in a discussion on SF about mods, between Feb 1st and May 1st, there were over 50,000,000 mod downloads for BG3, SF had about 200k.
50 million mod downloads in 3 months.
So I am pretty sure there are a whole lot of people already using mods from Nexus, don't allow a few posts here about people wanting Workshop because they cannot install mods for BG3 from Nexus fool you.