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Something somewhat perception confirmation bias.
Check the combat log.
Each dice roll is an independent event. (Assuming Karmic dice is off. )
The previous roll has zero influence on the next roll.
(Also not technically true here since computers are incapable of true randomness, and theoretically you could predict the next roll if you understood the seed and the formula used... but this is irrelevant for this discussion.)
Just because you failed a roll, does not mean the next roll is more likely to succeed.
Statistics state that you should have an x% of rolls that succeed. This is better interpreted as a limit. The more rolls you have in the dataset, the closer you will get to that percentage (aka limit). With just 3 rolls, there is little to no expectation that this result would be close to that x%.
RNG is random
(FYI, Sacred Flame requires a DEX saving throw to negate damage)
https://bg3.wiki/wiki/Sacred_Flame
So in this case, the Dex "bonus" of the skeleton does apply a -1 to the saving throw it rolls. Not sure what the DC for Sacred flame would be for a low level default Shadowheart, but I would guess it would be something like 13? (8 ,+ 3 for wisdom bonus, +2 for wisdom proficiency?)
So the skeleton would have a (20-14)/20 chance to succeed? So that would be 30%?
% chance to hit for Shadowheart would be about 70% here?
If I leave her as default Trickery domain, it seems like she can never hit the broad side of a barn. I am not claiming the dice aren't fair etc. It just seems to be SH left as trickery, (in my case in many play throughs), she is kinda like Stevie Wonder when lobbing spells. :)
Agree with you 100%. I do not like Shadowheart's default subclass and the default stat spread. The other issue with Shadowheart is that as she is a 1/2 Elf, so her firebolt is based on INT. She doesn't really have a good option for damaging cantrips with the default setup.
I picked War domain and am loving her reaction ability that negates misses. If Lae'zel misses a swing on her big stun, SH just goes "wait, try that again" and *bam* there we go, stun lands and we prevail. Yay. Super op especially compared to the default *miss*, *miss*, *miss*...
Wait, am I missing something? You have to wait until withers to respec followers, don't you? You are stuck with SH, Astarion, Gayle as they are until Withers gives that option, or am I wrong?
nah you aren't missing anything
It's kinda good in that it can ignore obstructions unlike other ranged attacks and it ignores elevation issues. It ignores disadvantage rules unlike other spells or ranged attacks.
I remember in Solasta there was a Cleric Subclass that made enemies have disadvantage for the Sacred Flame DEX save check.
For BG3 there are probably ways to make it better / consistent including respecing your Cleric to have higher wisdom.
Or you could waste a feat for Spell Sniper to get Eldritch Blast which would scale off your Wisdom and make you crit on 19+20 for spells. But... that could be waste. Alert, +2 stats, or War Caster are better.