Rolling a 1 5x consecutively is around 1 in 3.2 million

[Fast]

So how have i managed this even once...let alone twice on this playthrough...

for reference

0.000000312500 (0%) is the probability of this.

[Bloodwest]

lol clean up your karma my dude that's some really otherworldly bad luck...
edit: or use karmic dice

[FAButzke]

Originally posted by Fast:

Originally posted by zero:

cause people fall for negative biases more then positive ones.

them critting 4 times in a row felt great and "should of happened".

these things happen in equal measure both ways, as thats ultimately what rng is.

i've had 4 20's on an actual table, you can find conversations online about people who have had more, or had worse with 1's, it all evens out in the end.

false. i have not even had 2 critical success in a row. ive been keeping track.

Seconded. Miss yes. Hits no.

[Reiklandraider]

isnt the chance of rolling 1 1 1 1 1 the same as the chance of rolling 1 2 3 4 5? or any other set of numbers?

[Makkura]

Consider the following: there are a bit more than 200.000 people playing the game currently. Consider each of them has about two dozen dice rolls in their session.
Answer the following:
- how many series of 5 are there?
- how likelly is it, that at least one of these series is all 1s?

[Marosh]

Originally posted by Fast:

So how have i managed this even once...let alone twice on this playthrough...

for reference

0.000000312500 (0%) is the probability of this.

You have a sequence of 50000 rolls. Each roll can be between 1 and 20. What is the probability to have a a subsequence of 5x1? That is your math problem. Not "just rolling 5x1".

[Bloodwest]

Originally posted by Ⓡ|Reiklandraider:

isnt the chance of rolling 1 1 1 1 1 the same as the chance of rolling 1 2 3 4 5? or any other set of numbers?

rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling 2 2 2 2 2 or 3 3 3 3 3, etc.

[DontMisunderstand]

It's simple. Because you don't understand the implications of the math. Proof: You use the 1 in 3.2 million odds as a reason why it shouldn't happen, despite the fact that literally hundreds of rolls are being made every combat. With the number of combats that happen, the number of players playing the game... it's expected for this to happen many many times. You happening to be two of those examples isn't of particular note.

[DontMisunderstand]

Originally posted by Bloodwest:

Originally posted by Ⓡ|Reiklandraider:

isnt the chance of rolling 1 1 1 1 1 the same as the chance of rolling 1 2 3 4 5? or any other set of numbers?

rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling 2 2 2 2 2 or 3 3 3 3 3, etc.

Rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling any combination of rolls. Dice rolls are independent. The odds of any roll is 1 in 20. Period. I rolled 4 1s, what are the odds I roll another? 1 in 20. I rolled 3000 1s. What are the odds the next is also 1? 1 in 20. The OP is wrong at a fundamental level about how the odds of independent events work.

[Makkura]

Originally posted by DontMisunderstand:

Originally posted by Bloodwest:

rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling 2 2 2 2 2 or 3 3 3 3 3, etc.

Rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling any combination of rolls. Dice rolls are independent. The odds of any roll is 1 in 20. Period. I rolled 4 1s, what are the odds I roll another? 1 in 20. I rolled 3000 1s. What are the odds the next is also 1? 1 in 20. The OP is wrong at a fundamental level about how the odds of independent events work.

Well it is a matter of scope.
OP is wrong in implying that because the chance to see such a result is low, it shouldn't happen, because the chance of each roll to have any number is indeed 1:20.
He is right in saying it is on its own an result "relativly" unlikely to be seen, as it is indeed (1/20)^5.
He is wrong in assuming all people are unlikely to see it, since he needs to consider all rolls being done, instead of just his personal specific set of 5 rolls.

[Bloodwest]

Originally posted by DontMisunderstand:

Originally posted by Bloodwest:

rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling 2 2 2 2 2 or 3 3 3 3 3, etc.

Rolling 1 1 1 1 1 is the same as rolling any combination of rolls. Dice rolls are independent. The odds of any roll is 1 in 20. Period. I rolled 4 1s, what are the odds I roll another? 1 in 20. I rolled 3000 1s. What are the odds the next is also 1? 1 in 20. The OP is wrong at a fundamental level about how the odds of independent events work.

Like the nickname, fits the topic nicely

[Valtaya]

No idea what is going on here, have the same "issue". After playing almost 40 years D&D, I woul say I rolled a LOOOOOOT of dices, sure there is the occasionaly 1, and something below 10, but never ever I had 5 (or more) 1 in a row... how do I know "consecutive", well I just moved all my characters away and made LaeZel, and one time Karlach, do a solo fight... me lvl 12 with +15 attack roll and +1d4 from blessing, enemy a lvl 8 fighter with an AC16 chain shirt and a simple spear... and lost and lost and lost and lost again, I think I tried about 6 times or so, always the same outcome, why... well rolled 1 all the time and NPC 19. Used karmic dice once, not that usefull, a) you need a ton of bad rolls before the karmic dice kicks in and b) it works the other way too. What is going on, I can not say, except, something is off. I even rolled a few dozen 1d20 RL and got not one 1... this streaks of rolled ones is out of this world. Now I play Pathfinder WOTR and while there is the ocasionaly miss, no such streaks... I mean sure you have +4 on attack and enemy have 18 ac, so anthing below rolled 14 is a miss, but you will "never" get 100 misses in a row.

[Fast]

Originally posted by Valtaya:

No idea what is going on here, have the same "issue". After playing almost 40 years D&D, I woul say I rolled a LOOOOOOT of dices, sure there is the occasionaly 1, and something below 10, but never ever I had 5 (or more) 1 in a row... how do I know "consecutive", well I just moved all my characters away and made LaeZel, and one time Karlach, do a solo fight... me lvl 12 with +15 attack roll and +1d4 from blessing, enemy a lvl 8 fighter with an AC16 chain shirt and a simple spear... and lost and lost and lost and lost again, I think I tried about 6 times or so, always the same outcome, why... well rolled 1 all the time and NPC 19. Used karmic dice once, not that usefull, a) you need a ton of bad rolls before the karmic dice kicks in and b) it works the other way too. What is going on, I can not say, except, something is off. I even rolled a few dozen 1d20 RL and got not one 1... this streaks of rolled ones is out of this world. Now I play Pathfinder WOTR and while there is the ocasionaly miss, no such streaks... I mean sure you have +4 on attack and enemy have 18 ac, so anthing below rolled 14 is a miss, but you will "never" get 100 misses in a row.

It is safe to say, that potentially, the dice in BG3 are weighted regardless of karmic dice.

People are able to achieve rolls that are 1 in 1million+ on the regular whilst not able to achieve 1 in 20 type rolls consistently, its defo not "RNG" AS some would have you believe.

[EricHVela]

I'm proud(?) of the fact that, using the same dice and dice tower as everyone else at the table, I rolled three 3s for ability scores. (Physical table.)

That means, three sets of four 1s.

(The DM always let us either try to reroll or take Standard Array if we wanted, but we'd have to take whatever we rerolled, and once we chose Standard Array, that's what we'd be stuck with using. After that streak, I took the Standard Array as a sure thing.)

[Makkura]

Originally posted by EricHVela:

I'm proud(?) of the fact that, using the same dice and dice tower as everyone else at the table, I rolled three 3s for ability scores. (Physical table.)

That means, three sets of four 1s.

(The DM always let us either try to reroll or take Standard Array if we wanted, but we'd have to take whatever we rerolled, and once we chose Standard Array, that's what we'd be stuck with using. After that streak, I took the Standard Array as a sure thing.)

That's equally sad as it is hillarious.
I'm kind sorry to say that but also not.

[Valtaya]

Yah, no idea why devs do this. I mean some must be a real moron to think this is some sort of "challenge". Rolling (exagerated exaple) 100x 1 within one fight is no challenge, it is just frustration, and than you start using "tricks" (like those warlock and/or paladin) builds and roflstomp everything, as if that were any sort of "fun".
Some days ago I wrote a RNG app, actualy thats not realy difficult, some thousands 1d20 generated numbers later... well the distribution curve is pretty much even.
Which reminds me of.... yah Pathfinder WOTR... going through the Gray Garrison... in every room 1-3 enemies, very easy fights, but it took their toll, by the time I reached "the end" I was all out of healing pots and spell slots, and than the "big" fight happens (to get the key, so before the demon and the mythic powers)... THAT is a test of skill and challenging, to still win with actualy no ressources left. There was not ONE fight in all of BG3 of that caliber.