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D4 Initiatives mean you overly favor anyone with dexterity, it's one thing to on average go first because you have a 20 dex, but on a D4 roll, you will always go before anyone with a +0 or lower dexterity, which is not how it goes usually.
Dex is already a massively overloaded stat that gets way too many benefits, and now this? :\
If you run D20 initiative, you could have sessions where a character with 5 or more initiative bonus than anyone else will always go last in all fights. It's one thing to use D20 on attack rolls, which are frequent. That evens out during a session, as each player rolls dozens of them. But Initiative roll happens only few times, or perhaps even once.
Does it overvalue Dex even more? Yes, and Dex indeed is a stat anyone who isn't rolling heavy armor melee build wants. But that's problem with Dex, not with winning initiative more often. Game needs to make sure people who dump some other stat for Dex get punished for it by targeted attacks on those weaker attributes.
Yes, SOMETIMES shocker, a Dex character wasn't at the top of the initiative order 100% of the time. Guess what? That's a thing that happens.
Having a high initiative bonus means more often you will be acting first, it should not be a you are guaranteed to go first.
It's honestly ridiculous of a change that once again tosses all the cookies once again into the bag of Dexterity, that didn't need more benefits, because it's already overloaded.
If Larian was going to go this rout then it may have been a good idea for them to reduce the initiative bonus on Alert. As it is, taking Alert practically guarantees that you will go first which is too powerful in my opinion and kind of makes your dice roll for initiative irrelevant. Cant be surprised is a really strong benefit as well.
Initiative could just as easily come from Wisdom (being able to predict your opponents next move) as it could from Dexterity.
A d4 initiative simply makes the "god stat" even more godly than it already was.
If I'm parsing this correctly, it's yet another attempt to inject "group initiative" into the game?
I mean, isn't that sort of the point of Alert? You're investing a Feat into it after all, and at most you'll only get three entire game.
Of course, on top of your Dex bonus, you're looking at +10 to initiative, so anyone with less than +7 is guaranteed to lose to you no matter what.