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I got this feeling too.
Yesterday I did the Paladins of Tyr fight, and won, but I burnt all my resources and everyone was semi dead. If half my attacks or spells connected, it would've been an easy fight.
So I redid the fight and save scummed everytime I got hit or I miss. I spent the next hour loading the game. I only connected around four attacks on the first try, and some took up to 5 reloads. And the enemies did not have huge ACs. I was constantly failing to hit an AC 12 wizard with a +7 to hit Astarion.
And the enemies? Jesus Christ, they just wouldn't miss.
There was a bug with the karmic dice rolls option, which existed in EA for over a year and a half and which was only caught because a player did exhaustive work to manually record over 1300 dice rolls.
Larian's rep posted to confirm that this was a bug and that it would be fixed, less than a week before BG3 launched.
Source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/BaldursGate3/comments/159ss0q/comment/jtqhot5/
So yes, Larian is entirely capable of having bugs in their dice roll system, not noticing them, and here is confirmed proof that this is something they were STILL messing about with just days before the official release. It is entirely possible there are still bugs all over the dice rolling system, with or without karmic dice enabled, and that Larian will not be aware of them without their customers doing exhaustive manual labor to find them.
It's certainly not outside the realm of chance that whatever they *fixed* regarding karmic dice rolls, could have resulted in the system being active at times even with the option toggled off in settings, or in some other way having an effect on rolls when the option to not use them should completely disable the whole system.
Hope this helps!
It's paranoia.
Turning Karmic Dice off is as fair as it gets. I have no problems with my rolls.
Only wish a handful of scenarios had different outcomes.
The rest, who cares. Chalk it up as bad luck.
So plan accordingly. Use tactics. Use exploding casks. Use alchemist fire. Gain height to get an advantage. Try and ambush with pulling mobs and funneling them to a kill zone.