The True Future of D&D

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

So all of the anguish about One D&D has an ironic twist - soon gaming companies are going to go bankrupt and be replaced by AI.

https://www.anotherdndblog.com/d&d/2022/12/04/will_ai_make_us_better_dms.html

Better DMing through AI?
First it came for our art, then it came for our words.

[Ghost]

I dunno man. I'm sure it will happen at some point but having tried that myself and a few others, they've mostly been pretty nonsensical.

"The chest is filled with lungs and lemons - the justice fruit only lawyers may touch." "The book woke up and chose words, and those words were words."

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

Originally posted by Ghost:

I dunno man. I'm sure it will happen at some point but having tried that myself and a few others, they've mostly been pretty nonsensical.

"The chest is filled with lungs and lemons - the justice fruit only lawyers may touch." "The book woke up and chose words, and those words were words."

They get better really fast. GPT-4 is about to release, and it might be Artificial General Intelligence - if not, then almost certainly GPT-5 will.

[SnarkOne]

Originally posted by Pan Darius Kairos:

Originally posted by Ghost:

I dunno man. I'm sure it will happen at some point but having tried that myself and a few others, they've mostly been pretty nonsensical.

"The chest is filled with lungs and lemons - the justice fruit only lawyers may touch." "The book woke up and chose words, and those words were words."

They get better really fast. GPT-4 is about to release, and it might be Artificial General Intelligence - if not, then almost certainly GPT-5 will.

If not, then GPT-6 for sure.

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

Originally posted by SnarkOne:

Originally posted by Pan Darius Kairos:

They get better really fast. GPT-4 is about to release, and it might be Artificial General Intelligence - if not, then almost certainly GPT-5 will.

If not, then GPT-6 for sure.

My predictions are based more around timelines - AGI no later than 2025 - than specfic iterations of some particular product or project.

It might not even be the GPT series of AI, but something else, although GPT and OpenAI are strong contenders. Google is too, and they haven't made a lot of what they're working on public yet (PaLM, etc.) Supposedly Google is in "code red" right now because OpenAI's ChatGPT (which is basically GPT3.5) is close to upending their entire economic model with AI assisted search and is trying to develop their own before OpenAI and Microsoft beat them to the punch with Bing (and OAI/MS announced this is exactly their intention).

The end result of this is an arms race on AI that will quickly result in AGI being unleashed on the world because mega corpirations can't quit competing with each other, and people can't stop "keeping up with the Jones's".

For D&D (as well as all forms of entertainment), this means that AI will soon be capable of generating any content we can dream of, on demand, in real time, text or graphically, animated, movies or games. It will be a "wish fulfillment device", a "genie" if you will.

And that means that Hasbruh and WotC are doomed - we'll all have D&D in our heads and at our fingertips through the magic of AI.

[Felix42]

I don't know. GPT-4 is impressive, but it cannot write about something with any reasonable level of insight, which means that it is still a long way from being useful for DnD content generation as I see it.

Looking at other ai tools, like art generators, they have so far failed to be useful to me when I have tried them.
Mostly when people look at new tech like this, they overestimate the initial usefulness and vastly underestimate the time frames involved.

I suspect some ai tools could be availaible fairly soon, but generate any content, thats probably gonna be decades away.

[id795078477]

In the absence of large scale mod-friendly and/or multiplayer games, the true future of DnD is to continue with 3e or 3.5e which is used for most of the existing PWs throughout more than two decades. That - and occasional releases of games like BG3 which happen.. well, once in a decade or rarer.

PSA: Make multiplayer in BG3 something like it is in NWN1. I really want that to be the case.

[KOHb]

Originally posted by Dellecross:

In the absence of large scale mod-friendly and/or multiplayer games, the true future of DnD is to continue with 3e or 3.5e which is used for most of the existing PWs throughout more than two decades. That - and occasional releases of games like BG3 which happen.. well, once in a decade or rarer.

PSA: Make multiplayer in BG3 something like it is in NWN1. I really want that to be the case.

I like 3 and 3.5 a lot.
But there is no way they would roll back to bloated million hits per round + tons of buffs.
Actually I wouldn't be glad to see this downgrade too. Luv 3+, but its outdated, let it be in the past.

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

Originally posted by Felix42:

I don't know. GPT-4 is impressive, but it cannot write about something with any reasonable level of insight, which means that it is still a long way from being useful for DnD content generation as I see it.

GPT-4 hasn't been publically released yet, only GPT-3 and ChatGPT. ChatGPT has been the real disruptor so far, and presumably it's a taste of what GPT-4 is like.

[id795078477]

Originally posted by Criminal Horse:

Originally posted by Dellecross:

In the absence of large scale mod-friendly and/or multiplayer games, the true future of DnD is to continue with 3e or 3.5e which is used for most of the existing PWs throughout more than two decades. That - and occasional releases of games like BG3 which happen.. well, once in a decade or rarer.

PSA: Make multiplayer in BG3 something like it is in NWN1. I really want that to be the case.

I like 3 and 3.5 a lot.
But there is no way they would roll back to bloated million hits per round + tons of buffs.
Actually I wouldn't be glad to see this downgrade too. Luv 3+, but its outdated, let it be in the past.

I'm not advocating for 3e or 3.5e. But "the future" = "what games are being played". That comes from either presence of a lot of DnD games or the longevity of existing games. The former is not the case and unlikely to ever be the case (again - see how "often" do we get a quality DnD game). The latter needs games that transcend just the offline/solo campaign and the only way to do it is multi-player. And the only multi-player DnD existing long-term experience are NWN1 PWs which just happen to be 3e or 3.5e.

So it's not that "3e / 3.5e are the future" because "they are superior" in any way. I never meant to say that. It's that in the absence of abundance and with the requirement of longevity the only existing option are games that are currently running on those editions.

[Trap Queen 85]

Originally posted by Felix42:

I don't know. GPT-4 is impressive, but it cannot write about something with any reasonable level of insight, which means that it is still a long way from being useful for DnD content generation as I see it.

Looking at other ai tools, like art generators, they have so far failed to be useful to me when I have tried them.
Mostly when people look at new tech like this, they overestimate the initial usefulness and vastly underestimate the time frames involved.

I suspect some ai tools could be availaible fairly soon, but generate any content, thats probably gonna be decades away.

Exactly. Don't get me wrong it's coming but it's still a long long way off. They thought self-driving cars would be a thing by now too.

[stun]

Originally posted by Pan Darius Kairos:

My predictions are based more around timelines - AGI no later than 2025

lol

[Dragon Master]

Originally posted by Trap Queen 85:

Originally posted by Felix42:

I don't know. GPT-4 is impressive, but it cannot write about something with any reasonable level of insight, which means that it is still a long way from being useful for DnD content generation as I see it.

Looking at other ai tools, like art generators, they have so far failed to be useful to me when I have tried them.
Mostly when people look at new tech like this, they overestimate the initial usefulness and vastly underestimate the time frames involved.

I suspect some ai tools could be availaible fairly soon, but generate any content, thats probably gonna be decades away.

Exactly. Don't get me wrong it's coming but it's still a long long way off. They thought self-driving cars would be a thing by now too.

Self driving cars are a thing now. They're used by the military to transport supplies in warzones to avoid endangering personnel.

They're just not a common thing because the technology isn't safe enough for millions of people in various city roads all using it to get to work, go to the store, take their kids to school and so on.

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

I mean, Waymo just got the green light to operate in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but self-driving cars operating in a messy environment and Artificial General Intelligence operating on a supercomputer or even a desktop are two different things (for now).

I'm reminded of the "why don't we have flying cars" complaints which ignore the fact that we DO have flying cars, they're called airplanes, and the reason why billions of people don't use them every day is because of economic reasons (fuel) and safety concerns (pilot's license). The common person will have a "flying car" the day they become electric and are flown by AI.

[Trap Queen 85]

Originally posted by Dragon Master:

Originally posted by Trap Queen 85:

Exactly. Don't get me wrong it's coming but it's still a long long way off. They thought self-driving cars would be a thing by now too.

Self driving cars are a thing now. They're used by the military to transport supplies in warzones to avoid endangering personnel.

They're just not a common thing because the technology isn't safe enough for millions of people in various city roads all using it to get to work, go to the store, take their kids to school and so on.

Not arguing they are possible but they are hardly a 'thing' yet. Plenty of articles citing companies that have been trying this for years that are running into the same very real and difficult road blocks that they weren't prepared for. Now sure they will overcome them but if it was a thing we'd see more of it in production. It's much like VR. Sure it exists but not on the level that meets most peoples expectations. And the masses and what they think and are willing to pay for is what matters here.

[Trap Queen 85]

Originally posted by Pan Darius Kairos:

I mean, Waymo just got the green light to operate in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but self-driving cars operating in a messy environment and Artificial General Intelligence operating on a supercomputer or even a desktop are two different things (for now).

I'm reminded of the "why don't we have flying cars" complaints which ignore the fact that we DO have flying cars, they're called airplanes, and the reason why billions of people don't use them every day is because of economic reasons (fuel) and safety concerns (pilot's license). The common person will have a "flying car" the day they become electric and are flown by AI.

Again a technology that exists but isn't adopted means what exactly?