Dice Rolls (save scumming Q)- pre determined?

[Spanish Inquisition]

First thing id like to say that its not a complaint, rather just a question.

I've been exploring early access so wanted to get some new outcomes.

On the swap entrance you have the option to roll the dice to see if you can see past the magic/illusion)

I've rolled it maybe 50 times now and always failed so far.

(target roll is 15 with arcana knowledge + 5-8 modifier for the roll with intelligence + arcana + guidance) So i need to roll at least 10 and i always roll less no matter how many times i tried (but different number)

So i switch to a different character that needs at least 11 roll and same thing.

Curious thing is, i select a character without arcana that needs to roll 20 (without modifiers)

And she rolls 15 max for example but without arcana & intelligence its not enough.

So im curious if the dice rigged to specific save file or play through?

Thanks in advance

[Pan Darius Cassandra]

That's some really bad luck, but no, it's not rigged.

[Spanish Inquisition]

Originally posted by pandariuskairos:

That's some really bad luck, but no, it's not rigged.

Can send you the autosave if you want to test it yourself.

Or anyone who wants to for that matter

[Spanish Inquisition]

Nobody wants to test it?

Need someone to confirm it as I'm pretty sure you will get same outcome everytime

[Runic Tunic]

Originally posted by Social Justice Warrior:

Originally posted by pandariuskairos:

That's some really bad luck, but no, it's not rigged.

Can send you the autosave if you want to test it yourself.

Or anyone who wants to for that matter

It's not rigged. The reason people know this isn't the case is because several people have already datamined and determined that all dice rolls across the board are very close to fair distribution (1/20 for each number on a D20) as is generally possible. Only times this changes is using the loaded dice mechanic for better roles.

Since no one has found any evidence of very specific roll events being skewed yet, it's more likely you just had a very bad run of RNG.

[Spanish Inquisition]

It's weird, I find the rolls to be pretty random had no issues with any of it. Except this case, I've rolled it so many times and its hard to believe that I cannot get even a 10 roll. It's like flipping a coin heads 50 times in a row.

As I went a little further in the playthrough I started rolling randomly normal again, some low some high etc.

[Runic Tunic]

Originally posted by Social Justice Warrior:

It's weird, I find the rolls to be pretty random had no issues with any of it. Except this case, I've rolled it so many times and its hard to believe that I cannot get even a 10 roll. It's like flipping a coin heads 50 times in a row.

As I went a little further in the playthrough I started rolling randomly normal again, some low some high etc.

That's kind of the nature of rng. Some times we get lots of good rolls, sometimes we get lots of bad, and sometimes it's random. Doesn't help that humans have cognitive bias and notice the negative far more than the positive.

Remember that none of the attempts you make take into account previous rolls, so each roll is an isolated 1/20 chance for each number. Because of that, you'll get instances of what you just described.

[Spanish Inquisition]

I'm aware of cognitive bias and that people tend to remember and complain about that time they had 95% hit change yet they missed anyway.

I've tried to roll the dice as much as possible and couldn't roll a simple 10, over and over and over.

All i need is for someone to double check it and post if im crazy wrong or confirm that there as a bug or something larian added in patch to prevent save scumming.

[Eratosthenes]

As others have noted, tests have shown the dice rolls to be evenly distributed. Unless you're using the loaded dice mod, or any other mod.

I suspect you haven't actually done as many tests as you think you have. Rolling a simple 10 is a mere 5% chance per roll. Try writing down your die rolls, and seeing what you get.

I know from my own experience that the game does not save the seed, so save-scumming is perfectly viable (you can roll a four, re-load, then roll a nat 20, or vice versa.)

Edit: I ran some numbers. To roll a single number, you'd have to roll the dice 32 times to have an 80% chance to roll a single number (i.e. a 10), and 45 times to have a 90% chance.

[God Queen 158]

It's just bad RNG. I've reloaded the situation with the Downed Mindflayer and got the same results 3 times in a row. I almost came to the same conclusion you did until I reloaded one last time.

Lo and behold I finally got a different result.

[Spanish Inquisition]

I stand corrected. I rolled a 9 finally and with an 8 modifier passed it.

Felt like a paranoid guy from movie number 23.

[Runic Tunic]

Originally posted by Social Justice Warrior:

I stand corrected. I rolled a 9 finally and with an 8 modifier passed it.

Felt like a paranoid guy from movie number 23.

Told ya lol All good though. Sometimes rng is just a ♥♥♥♥♥.

[pbeadsworth]

I've twice now had 2 occasions where I've failed to pass a 10 roll 40 times the probability of this is 1:6x10^20 (assuming everyone on the planet is playing and has made 98363413141 rolls each this should have happened to 1 person). I therefore assume that certain events are rigged. Mostly the die rolls follow normal probability.
Of course, random says that his could happen to everyone but with a very low probability.
Assuming that every human on the planet re-rolls every 30 seconds on average this should happen once every 93000 years. But as I've now achieved a 3rd situation I would need a better calculator to work it out.
I changed character attempting the task so it only required a 5 to pass (4:5 chance). It took 9 tries (1:1953125) probability. I would be more likely to win the national lottery 3 weeks running than pass some of these checks.
Of course with random it is not impossible that every player so far has always rolled a 1!
Statistically, it's more likely that I'm a Githyanki-mindflayer playing with your heads than that the dice rolls are entirely random.

[God Queen 158]

There are some moments in the game that I always seem to fail and require savescumming almost all the time. The Downed Mindflayer Wisdom check in the beginning and crushing the tadpole from Edowin are the situations that seem way more likely to fail than other checks.

Of course it's my human pattern seeking brain possibly. And the fact that the first situation requires redoing a whole encounter, and the latter incurs disapprovals from all companions. That negative feedback probably makes the RNG feel more egregious. I think both are DC10s!

[CoffeeBro]

People who complain about unfair dice rolls in the game, have never played table top with a DM who just won't bend the rules lol. I swear some dice used in RL were weighted lol.

You know BG3 is close to the tabletop experience when people complain about the dice rolls hahaha.