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It might be more depending on how much they pay there employees. But the budget for the 2nd game was at least 2 million as that's what they raised on kick starter. It was more as they already invested there own money and just wanted to increase the scope of the game.
The absolute most I can see for a cRPG like Baldurs Gate 3 is 8-15 million. But honestly I'm bettering less.
Hell yes.
Shadows are dynamic, though? Have you seen the gameplay demo and where he explains about being able to manipulate shadows and lighting to provide concealment?
That's actually a reason they are probably not dynamic, if you can manipulate something than having it be ever moving and changing would actually hinder that and make implementing such a mechanic a pain in the ass.
I'm watching the video now, I'll give my thoughts to get to it. But I am thinking in terms of almost puzzle-like cat-and-mouse gameplay, where certain shadows are moving all the time, like a moving light source, flickering torches, et cetera, and you have to navigate a maze of moving shadows by keeping up with them. Even lightning could illuminate your character.
They made a lot of money with DOS2 and have expanded as a company. and I don't think Kick starter was the entire budget for that game. This point is completely pulled out of my ass with no realistic basis to it so no need to take it very seriously. Your first estimate just felt small for a company the size Larian.
Considering what the stealth rules actually are in 5e and what constitutes Light and Heavy Obscurement, it's not as complicated as it sounds.
Considering Dark Souls had a real darkness area, that might also be a fun one-off. Like, have an area where infravision matters, that or you have to carry a torch.
That's what the out-of-combat turn-based mode is for.
No you are correct I even said it wasn't their entire budget they added to it especially considering the first games budget was around 4.5 million. It actually almost bankrupted them.
They made 83 million with DoS2, I just don't see this niche genre having a massive budget. I could be wrong and it could be 20 mill.