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Your Economy is still growing. Without spending money on transports, your percentage will start to drop. While that may not sound bad while you are at peace; Once you go to war and start losing transports, it could get very painful VERY quickly.
Now, do you have to keep that transport bar "maxed" out? Probably not... depending on your growth and economy size.
Never let your TP get below full funding at any point or you will start to suffer loss to the economy and your Naval budget. Keeping it slightly positive works well.
My impression now is that during peacetime, once having hit 200%, additional $$$ spent on TR growth is just throwing money down a hole. I don't perceive there's something like "invisible surplus" TRs being built up as a reserve above 200%.
Obviously, if a war starts, I jack the slider up to compensate for any TR losses which might occur.
I was a "peg TR slider all the way to the right and leave it there" player for the longest time. I shudder to think of how much naval budget I wasted for so many campaigns.
Are there any new insights regarding this "invisible surplus"?
That is a measure of how many transports you are able to repair per turn.
100% is the number of transports you need as a MINIMUM to maintain the income routes from your provinces.
200% represents the maximum number of transports you can have. Every amount added between 100-200% adds an additional amount to your GDP as you are able to take advantage of other revenue streams from your provinces.
If you put 0.00 additional on the slider (no negative) your pool will remain stable unless acted on by an outside force... (like transports mysteriously deciding to inspect the sea floor).
Any amount above 0.00 when at 200%, is functionally wasted anytime there is no loss taken by the pool.
Therefore, the advice given by several folks above is solid. Reach 200% as soon as you can, you get money for that. Keep at 0.00 or slightly higher if you expect to go to war soon, and max out when at war UNTIL you have a handle on your enemy and they are unable to hit your transports any more. Then you can reduce down to something less in case you are hit but only a few. I tend to go down to +1% if I'm only losing 1 or 2 ships a month. If I'm not losing anything over long periods, I'll actually go back down to 0.00 if I need the money.
If you are swimming in cash, you can just leave it on full all the time if you want shiny transports with all the goodies and parties nightly on the Lido Deck.