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Must be pretty hard to test for unless the data can be mined directly from the game files.
The vast majority of the time, drop chances are doubled, so I would expect 1/1,250. Unfortunately I can't confirm that.
If it is, it would make Expert a better difficulty to farm for them. Mobs take longer to kill, but when farming for keys you're killing lots of trivial creatures, so improving the drop chance has much more impact than spending half a second more killing super weak mobs.
The drop chance is higher. I found all the biome keys in my expert world. And I haven't spent an awful lot of time in it.
I had to kill :
1900 dark mummies
1650 ichor stickers
1050 herplings
1050 floaty gross
600 crimslime
total = 6250 crimson monsters
I guess I was just not lucky