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Its like a 1% chance.................
http://terraria.gamepedia.com/Treasure_Bag
In addition to the above, all Treasure Bags from Hardmode bosses have a 5% chance to contain a random set of developer items:
it's 1/20 chances... 1/240 since there's 12 dev set if you want a specific one
Edit: Farming Golem is the easiest way to go... or plantera