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wtf?
now have 5 golem kills = still no more
Out of curiosity (and because someone on reddit mentioned it) I tried using Solar Tablet to summon eclipse and it spawned! Not in the sky, but near the ground while I was wrestling with swamp things and frankenstein monsters. So I thought solar eclipse is the key. So I would make many tablets and summon it several times over. Also thanks to 1.3 update I have around 50 - 60 % chance of getting an eclipse naturally (sometimes coupled with blood moon even)
Right so after 7 - 8th probe they stop coming during eclipse. I do not know why, it's probably related to golem so during an eclipse I went to summon golem and beat it. Not long after a probe showed up. This method too doesn't last long. The next attempt does not spawn the probe. I also make sure to increase the chance of spawning using water candle and battle potion.
And... last night I summoned frost legion invasion a probe popped up! Since I already have an invasion it can't overlap and that one is wasted.
In summary over a dozen tries I can vaguely conclude that the martian probe spawning is affected by:
1) Spawn rate - during event with huge spawn rate it is more likely to get curious and check things out
2) Beating golem over and over? I had a friggin altar near my house so why not
I also noticed a peculiar pattern in the martian saucer spawn. Sometimes 2 appeared during an invasion, sometimes none at all. I even got a whooping 4 spawns in one event (sadly they drop multiple laser drills and still no mount).
The pattern for me is, when there's multiple saucer spawning per event, the next event will have no saucer. For some reason. :/