Flying Dutchman not Spawning

[Pigsywikbubbles]

Im in journey mode, and the pirate invasion has happened, but the flying dutchman never spawned. I do not know hy, im in the town biome, please help.

[Jostabeere]

Originally posted by RoofCat:

Originally posted by wcc:

Talking from experience: No. It can happen that not even a single one spawns.

I had around 50 invasions grinding for pirate staff. There was always at least one. Depends on free room available if you can trust wiki though. Rare few times though the life bar vanished just as quickly as appeared. So watch the bottom of your screen too.

So if I had to guess, those chances of not spawning at least one are really small if your house is in open. Smaller than 3 Dutchmans in one that is. Also regarding Dutchman - it rarelly ever has loot. Like 1/20? At least in my case. I was considering ignoring it altogether while grinding. Captains and regulars have higher loot chances eventually due to numbers I suppose. And everything you can get from dutchman you can get from a captain too iirc. So doesn't really matter in the end.

Thing is, any of your assumptions, while fully plausible, because it is simple experience, are not really true.
Actual statistics and drop rates in the game go against it. I point out which ones:
1. The Dutchman has a equally high chance of not spawning as spawning multiple times.
2.The drop chances it has are still really low. Between 10 and 0.25%
3. You can not really get everything from captains aswell. Well, the functional stuff you can. But the odds of getting it from Captains is much lower. And there are only like 2-4 captains per invasion. The odds of getting anything from a Captain is 5 times lower than from the ship. The odds of getting anything of worth from a normal pirate are 4 times lowe than from the Captain and 20 times lower than from the Ship.
And numbers don't make it easier, as lower odds from more enemies don't add up to higher odds, they stay individual.

[wcc]

Originally posted by Jostabeere:

1. The Dutchman has a equally high chance of not spawning as spawning multiple times.
...
And numbers don't make it easier, as lower odds from more enemies don't add up to higher odds, they stay individual.

How's so? I'ld say, both are cases of conditional probability. The Dutchman has a chance to spawn whenever a pirate is generated (after 50% ofc). While the chance of a spawn to become a FD is equally low at any time, the chances still add up if you take the whole invasion event into account.
Similar with drops. The chance to get a special item from a single Pirate Captain is low. But if we are allowed to roll the dice 3 times (assuming there are 3 Pirate Captains in the whole invasion) increases the chance to get this single item.