is lava charm in the game anymore?

[Eil]

know that it is in the game but the little f***** doesn't show up, i fished 82 obsidian crates and explore the left half of a large world lava caves, nothing, just a lot of chest with s*** i already have, is any one else having problems finding a lava charm? is not even necessary at this point i have like 18 lava sharks, i just want the Terraspark Boots

[Eil]

Escrito originalmente por GMC:

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Er. What?
I'm sorry, but if you open 82 boxes, and the odds are a 1/40 chance on each one, at best, you're doubling the odds to 1/20.
Where are you getting a 87% chance from?

The probability of not getting one from a single crate is 39/40. The probability of not getting one from 82 crates is (39/40)^82 = 0.1254. Consequently, the probability of getting at least one from 82 crates is 1-(39/40)^82 = 1-0.1254 = 0.8746.

For a fairly accurate approximation, if the probability of something happening is 1/N then the number of attempts required for a 50-50 chance of it happening at least once is roughly ln(2)*N ~= 0.693 N. So for N=40 (i.e. a 1/40 chance), every 27.7 attempts is a 50-50 chance, so 82 attempts = (27.7*2.96) is effectively 3 coin flips, for which there's a 1/8 chance (0.125) of losing all 3.

thnx dude, finally someone that gets my point.

[davidb11]

GMC, So, the Gambler's Fallacy is incorrect then? Please explain that.
And also please explain how no one is constantly struck by lightning?

You are aware it's a rare event to be struck by lightning which makes the idea that your probabilty theory is correct.
Especially since it completely removes the Gambler's Fallacy.
Which renders all Casinos obsolete, since they rely on it. :P

Why are people trying to ignore how probability works.
You can literally flip a coin 3000000 times and have it all land on Heads.
It doesn't mean the odds are seventy five octillion to one or whatever you might claim,

There is literally a set amount of chances for something.
THIS IS NOT debatable.

[GMC]

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Stop using it and trying to use math to justify it. You cannot use math to determine probability in a video game based on drop rates.

Of course you can. You're just misunderstanding what he's saying (which is understandable as English clearly isn't his native language). The more crates you open, the greater the probability that you'll eventually get the desired item. That's something you can calculate, and for 82 crates the probability is ~87%.

[davidb11]

Except that is not how it works.
Since it's a flat 1/40 chance.
Please stop destroying the Gambler's Fallacy.

IT's a big deal.
And you need to provide evidence of how come people are not constantly struck by lightning if what your example means is correct. Since you are quite literally saying the odds of being struck by lightning increase every second of every day.

Seriously, stop ruining the entire point of probability by claiming it can be calculated out like that.
Again, you're literally saying that if you do 2 trillion Hell Baal runs, you are guarenteed a Zod rune.
And that's not how it works!
This is literally HOW PROBABILITY WORKS. You can literally do 7 Gogolplex Baal runs and not get more than 3 Zod runes to drop!

You can't remove the concept of the Gambler's Fallacy. OTherwise, all casinos literally cannot function since they use the Gambler's Fallacy to get money from people. :P

If the Gambler's Fallacy doesn't exist, which is what you are saying, then how are casinos functioning? How do lotteries function?
Seriously. If you can calculate out probabilities like that, people would constantly win the lottery.

[GMC]

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Except that is not how it works.

It is.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Since it's a flat 1/40 chance.

It's a 1/40 chance of any given crate having the item, and a 39/40 chance of any given crate not having the item. If you open 2 crates, there's a (1/40)^2=1/1600 chance that *both* crates will have the item, a (39/40)^2=1521/1600=~95.1% chance that neither crate will have the item, and a 2*(1/40)*(39/40)=78/1600 chance that exactly one crate will have the item.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Again, you're literally saying that if you do 2 trillion Hell Baal runs, you are guarenteed a Zod rune.

Wrong. A Poisson process (look it up) follows an exponential frequency distribution. If the probability of one trial succeeding is p, the probability of one trial failing is (1-p), the probability of n trials *all* failing is (1-p)^n, the probability of at least one trial in n succeeding is 1-(1-p)^n. As n gets larger (more trials), this probability gets closer to 1, but it never reaches it.

This has nothing to do with the gambler's fallacy, which is the belief that the probability of an individual trial changes based upon the outcome of previous trials.

[Dash's Trashbag]

yee

[davidb11]

Okay. I see, you're using Statistics. My friend had to point this out to me.
I see. Sorry. My bad.

I was relating things based on probability, which doesn't obey statistics laws. At least it sure seems like that.
You are correct according to Statistics, but well, probability tends to disagree with statistics.

[Bagagel [IanTay]]

You could always make a luck Potion ._.

[steffen1402]

Escrito originalmente por Porcy:

Got my 4th lava charm while opening my first obsidian crate, I though it was a common drop from them :c

Please tell me you have the seed from that world!

[davidb11]

I don't think the seed will affect the probability of a lava charm dropping from a crate.
THat would be a very weird thing to base the entire RNG on.

[Eil]

Escrito originalmente por Bagel Boi IanTay:

You could always make a luck Potion ._.

Crates are not affected by luck and that makes me sad :(

[davidb11]

Eil, I want to apologize. I wasn't aware you and the other guy were using Statistics.
Because yes, you are correct when it comes to statistics.
But probability is a different beast all together.

[GMC]

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

1 in 40 is universal. It is set in stone. It does not change no matter how many crates you open.

It's 1/40 PER CRATE. Drop chances are always per crate or per enemy killed. Each time you open another crate or kill another enemy you get another "roll of the dice".

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Please explain why you are literally claiming there becomes a near 100% chance to get it.

Because there's no limit to how many crates you can fish. The more crates you fish, the greater the chance that at least one of them will have a lava charm in it.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

THe odds do not go up every single second of every single day that I am going to be struck by lightning. And that is literally what you are claiming. That I should be struck by lightning.

If you live long enough, you will get struck by lightning eventually. Given how rare an occurrence it is, "long enough" probably means you'd have to live for thousands of years before it becomes more likely than not. But unless you manage to live so long that the atmosphere eventually disappears and lighting stops being a thing, it'll happen eventually.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

It's a flat amount. It cannot change. It doesn't matter how many crates you open.

This is incorrect.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

You can open ten thousand crates and not get it.

This is correct. Although if you open 10,000 crates, the probability of not getting at least one is approximately 1 in 9x10^109 (that's 9 with 109 zeros after it). Which is very unlikely, to say the least.

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

It's a RNG check.

That's correct. It's a RNG check for every crate. Not a RNG check when you start the game which decides that you'll never, ever get a lava charm from a crate.

[Eil]

Escrito originalmente por Epicguyplaying:

Escrito originalmente por Eil:

know that it is in the game but the little f***** doesn't show up, i fished 82 obsidian crates and explore the left half of a large world lava caves, nothing, just a lot of chest with s*** i already have, is any one else having problems finding a lava charm? is not even necessary at this point i have like 18 lava sharks, i just want the Terraspark Boots

Hello!
I found a shortcut!!!

So what is the shortcut? Get 8-10 obsidion crates and save and exit the game. In settings turn off auto save and go to windowed (like not full screen, where you can x out the game) mode. Go onto the game and open the crates. If you do NOT have the lava charm close the tab. DO NOT SAVE AND EXIT. Re launch them game and you will still have the unopened crates. Keep repeating and you will get it and save a lot of time because each crate is like spining the 1/40 wheel.

So I normally dont reply to this stuff but I just spent the last week grinding for the charm and I found a good way to after I got it. As someone said earlier fishing is a 1/40 chance just like the chest (I belive). Each time you open a obsidien crate it's like spinning a wheel. It's not set when you get it and it's completly random. I had just fished 8 crates and some stupid update crashed my computer after I auto saved. When I got back on, my crates were unopened and as I re opened them on the 2nd one I got it. I fished for so long I actually did 33 fishing quest on the side. Hope this helps someone!!!

thnx, but at this point is personal, i want them legit, i have other characters with the item, i think i do at least, but wont take those, is a thing of pride.

[Eil]

Escrito originalmente por davidb11:

Eil, I want to apologize. I wasn't aware you and the other guy were using Statistics.
Because yes, you are correct when it comes to statistics.
But probability is a different beast all together.

it's ok, i want to thnx @GMC for explaining, looks like my english and my diction are quite bad.