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But honestly, I have done a run where I do it that min-max way, and I have done a run where I only spent lessons on the skill it was for (mostly because I didn't think to do it any other way).
And, you know what? The latter way was actually a much easier game, even if it was less efficient. My skills had way higher Aspects, which means it was a lot easier to craft and read books. Which is, honestly, more important than having more soul cards. You can always just wait another day for them to refresh.
My advice? Don't stress about minmaxing the skills unless you find that kind of thing fun. It isn't necessary. I'd argue it isn't even all that helpful.
Just upgrade whatever you want.
There are some skills you might want to upgrade anyway for crafting.. Definitely better to use the lessons than lose them all in Numa.
I tried that in one run and I basically ended up kinda softlocking myself, because I ended up putting a bunch of skills on the tree that don't have any upgrade points, and that meant I couldn't actually upgrade my soul cards, which meant I couldn't easily boost the people I hired to open more doors.
I had a different run where I tried to do as you did and only upgraded with their own thing, but the result was having a ton of weak skills and no real way to advance anything, since while I know you can use any lesson, you do still need A lesson.
But obviously since I don't really know what lessons spawn from what books, I have like 8 or 9 lessons that I'm not able to use to either get a new skill or upgrade an uncommitted skill so I can commit it.
For example, right now I am trying to upgrade rhyme and rejuvenation so I can slot it into level 4 birdsong, but I've got no lessons for moon or winter. And because of that, I am just sitting on random lessons and worried they're going to get wasted.
Take a look at some of the more high-level crafted memories, some of them have an 'evolves with' aspect, that lets you use them to evolve skill/soul combos that wouldn't normally have a bench that they can work with.
That said, don't feel too bad about upgrading some skills even if they're not going into the tree. You're not really expected to fully 100% the entire tree in one playthrough anyway (I think, at least), and I do sometimes like to upgrade skills just because it makes crafting with them more convenient. I love having high level Lockworks & Clockworks for example, for easily turning glass into metal without needing to scrounge up a Knock mood.
That, or just looking at skills that have one aspect that you need a lot more of to reliably read books, and upgrade that...
Generally I'd say the pressure's low enough that there aren't too many disastrously wrong choices you can make. :)
See, I'm not sure that I'd agree with that? The pressure is extremely high in this game to avoid what seems to be impossible softlock situations. Most of this is due to the fact that you'll end up in places where you can't progress at all because you can't upgrade anything, won't have any books, and and can't exalt help to get any further.
I'd like to say that this was a casual, no pressure game but after 60 hours this feels a lot closer to trying to manage Eve Online than anything else, and that's not a good thing.
Having a load of Soul Aspect cards is of course helpful, but quite secondary. I don't have any Soul cards maxed, I am, in fact, right now doing a bunch of Scholar- and Keeper-level Knock recipes, and I am doing that not even with my one, lonely, singular, never upgraded Shapt card... I can use about anything else and still could set up an industrial-style production line for Sacrament Ascite.
The relevant thing here is that whatever you create first depends on the Skills you use. So you first need to learn which skills give you what, then level a selection of these high enough to cater to your needs. Levelling attributes is more useful with unlocking rooms, but apart from that it's better having high (and hand-selected) Skills than Soul cards.
Ok, that's too many lines for two... but I really would like to direct your attention to citeablekettle's post above again. If you break down some (uncommitted!) level 5 skill in Numa then that's thirteen Joker Lessons out of that - Lessons, not Memories. Sure, you have to spend these in just one game day... but you can relevel the Skill afterwards, repeat that ad infinitum, and with the kind of 'profit' you make... and yes, technically, as in, if the game would have skill levels that high, it would just be a matter of time alone to get each and every Skill to 1337 - except for one, of course. :D
Which of course works only with uncommitted Skills, so...
There's a very fundamental difference here. I do the above, levelling the Skills however I like - and, from the very beginning, I only ever commit a Skill to the tree and get my Soul card if there is NO other way to get what or where I want. I avoid committing them like the plague and will only do that if I absolutely must.
And no, I am not feeling any pressure. :D
As for optimising how you spend your lessons to fill up your Tree of Wisdom, I wouldn't mind TOO much, it is not that useful to fill it up completely. Eventually you'll have plenty of cards anyway, maybe not enough to fully level up those souls, but it doesn't matter because it wouldn't help you progress the game anyway.
If there's a soul card I'm particularly short on then I'll try to prioritize getting a skill slotted to unlock more of it, but otherwise I just try to use the lessons as they come in, either to bump a skill toward a possible slot, or to increase the more useful crafting skills.
I do try to keep one unslotted skill in the 4-6 range for respec, and try to make sure I have no lessons left when Numa rolls around; it's not critical, just more efficient to use them first.
If I haven't had a recent Numa, this means I go in waves: read books in the first few days, then furiously slot skills before month end. But if I get caught, eh, worst case is I spend a few extra hours at the end of the game waiting for one more Numa, and maybe picking up a few auction books along the way.
I agree that it can be easy to feel like you're soft-locked, particularly early in the game. I do think there should be a few more options of helping new players out of awkward early-game situations. My tips for avoiding soft-locks: