Are knocking on your door events in endgame full RNG?

[mirash2005]

Or are there some tips on how to predict the outcome?

Im trying to beat game on Tsar Bomba now, and Im getting extremely frustrated with these knocking events screwing me over. Basically 3 times in a row I had same crap happening to me - I was having a good run, completing all the required missions for one of the positive outcomes, and waiting out in a bunker (usuallly short on food and water already) And when the kncking event showed up, each time it was raiders cleaning up my shelter fully and leaving my characters to starve to death before the next one.

On third time I was like, ok, maybe on Tsar Bomba first knocking is always a fake out, so I should skip it. So I played some more. and 2 more times I was skipping the first knocking, opening on the second.... and getting raiders messing up my whole run again.

So its 5 winning runs in a raw ruined at the last moment by same RNG. Am I missing smth, or not seeing some clues? Or just being super unlucky?

Cause if not, and such odds are intended this particular RNG seems like a very cheap and frustrating road block right at the very end. Yeah, the whole game is basically based on how lucky or not you get with a set of events, but there is still enough agility to it for one to have at least 50/50 chance of success once you know most events, and items, so it still keeps the intrigue while rewarding you for learning its nuances, and thats nice. But with this endgame knocking RNG it feels like the game is just straight out forcing you to throw a 6 on the dice with absolutely no regard for what you've been doing the whole game before it. And if you didn't - nothing else matters, you just lose. And its just the worst case of misuse of RNG in a game, straight out blocking player from finishing the game unless he gets very lucky, no matter how he was doing before this block.

[mirash2005]

I managed it after a couple more tries. I have found in some topic that rescue comes 20-30 days after doing final event. So I locked up with one character to have enough food and just waited for 30 days. In my case it meant skipping first two knocks and opening on third one. And it was the rescue (twins)
Cant tell for certain if thats some universal strategy, maybe I just finally got lucky. But it did work for me

[jimmy]

If its a Rescue there will be a Doodle and if its in the Start of the Game its a Family Member u forgot above