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The saves are located in the following folder, so there's still a chance you might have them there:
But, I've got an idea (could be wrong, though) that it could have been caused by a malfunction of Steam's cloud saves (or any third-party cloud synchronization software for that matter). So, if you still want to give the game a go, I'd recommend turning that feature off in the Steam client (or any third-party program you might use).
Say, the cloud sync got tricked into thinking that the old version of the checkpoint savefile was the most recent one, so it kept replacing the new versions of the file with the older ones, effectively reproducing the scenario you've described above.
I'm not sure if Steam would do that while the game was running. If Windows or any third-party program decided not to let the game save at all (due to lacking permissions or files temporarily locked by a program working on them), you'd get a large error popup right away. It's highly unlikely that the game would let it fail silently. It does look like Carrion saved just fine, but the files got somehow reverted to the old versions.